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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-21 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,979.34–6,986.33 (+1.8%) | 5.3 | 7.5% | 6h | 5.2d ago · 71× | 10% ±15 | 23% ±11 | 51% ±13 | 26% ±12 | 55 | 2% ±3 | 10% ±14 | 25% ±38 | 54% ±69 | 6.0d | 0.46% | 0.17% | 93 → 2 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 30D POC | 6,946.04–6,951.4 (+1.4%) | 3.9 | 9.7% | 14h | 5.4d ago · 78× | 17% ±23 | 26% ±13 | 40% ±15 | 34% ±14 | 43 | 2% ±4 | 17% ±22 | 34% ±46 | 71% ±63 | 5.1d | 0.42% | 0.31% | 63 → 2 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,919.25 (+1.0%) | 2.8 | 10.9% | 12h | 6.4d ago · 44× | 43% ±49 | 20% ±17 | 48% ±21 | 32% ±19 | 22 | 20% ±16 | 40% ±48 | 77% | 96% | 1.9d | 0.57% | 0.44% | 23 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,888 (+0.5%) | 1.4 | 5.5% | 5h | 6.3d ago · 49× | 71% ±40 | 25% ±19 | 38% ±21 | 38% ±21 | 21 | 38% ±17 | 71% ±40 | 88% ±45 | 97% | 20h | 0.45% | 0.35% | 32 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,853.43 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 6,846.6 (-0.1%) | 0.3 | 2.5% | 4h | 6.4d ago · 41× | 57% ±37 | 26% ±19 | 43% ±22 | 30% ±20 | 20 | 48% ±15 | 59% ±36 | 63% ±67 | 70% | 18h | 1.39% | 0.39% | 44 → 1 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | VAL | long | 6,853.43 | 6,951.4 | 6,821.45 | stop | +0.81% |