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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-25 13:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH | 7,780.47 (+1.0%) | 3.8 | 0.8% | 57m | 4.4d ago · 71× | 12% ±10 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 2% ±2 | 12% ±10 | 25% ±25 | 56% ±43 | 6.8d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 223 → 5 | |
| 7D POC | 7,767.6 (+0.8%) | 3.1 | 5.4% | 6h | 4.6d ago · 78× | 22% ±16 | 29% ±9 | 35% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 91 | 3% ±3 | 21% ±16 | 38% ±34 | 66% ±46 | 4.9d | 0.44% | 0.35% | 149 → 4 | |
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 7,735.54 (+0.4%) | 1.6 | 2.1% | 4h | 4.5d ago · 66× | 38% ±16 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±11 | 29% ±10 | 82 | 19% ±5 | 38% ±16 | 58% ±28 | 77% ±37 | 2.5d | 0.44% | 0.20% | 210 → 5 | |
| 30D POC | 7,712.21 (+0.1%) | 0.4 | 8.0% | 14h | 4.6d ago · 46× | 73% ±21 | 27% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 32% ±13 | 53 | 54% ±9 | 73% ±21 | 86% ±28 | 90% ±34 | 3h | 0.47% | 0.25% | 109 → 3 | |
| at post · 7,704.15 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL | 7,694.64 (-0.1%) | 0.5 | 4.2% | 6h | 6.3d ago · 67× | 77% ±16 | 22% ±9 | 36% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 85 | 53% ±8 | 77% ±16 | 84% ±24 | 92% ±27 | 3h | 0.56% | 0.51% | 165 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,686.14 (-0.2%) | 0.9 | 5.5% | 7h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 69% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 26% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 91 | 50% ±7 | 70% ±15 | 83% ±21 | 89% ±28 | 18h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 213 → 5 | |
| 14D POC | 7,635.38 (-0.9%) | 3.4 | 9.6% | 13h | 4.5d ago · 63× | 14% ±16 | 22% ±9 | 39% ±11 | 39% ±11 | 74 | 4% ±4 | 14% ±15 | 38% ±36 | 67% ±53 | 4.9d | 0.45% | 0.33% | 119 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,614.79 (-1.2%) | 4.4 | 3.0% | 5h | 5.6d ago · 41× | 13% ±12 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 4% ±3 | 13% ±12 | 31% ±29 | 46% ±49 | > 7d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 175 → 4 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,587.35 (-1.5%) | 5.8 | 4.8% | 6h | 6.3d ago · 58× | 11% ±10 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 1% ±2 | 11% ±10 | 31% ±26 | 47% ±44 | > 7d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 213 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.