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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-09-25 13:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,699.52 (+1.3%) | 5.7 | 1.0% | 1h | 7.8d ago · 49× | 31% ±64 | 29% ±21 | 29% ±21 | 43% ±23 | 18 | 7% ±14 | 28% ±62 | 69% | 69% | 2.0d | 0.25% | 0.44% | 13 → 1 | |
| 7D VAH | 6,670.89 (+0.9%) | 3.9 | 1.5% | 2h | 5.6d ago · 71× | 38% ±48 | 19% ±16 | 48% ±20 | 33% ±19 | 24 | 11% ±12 | 36% ±47 | 62% | 88% | 2.0d | 0.30% | 0.29% | 26 → 1 | |
| 14D VAH | 6,650.56 (+0.6%) | 2.6 | 4.1% | 7h | 5.8d ago · 66× | 32% ±41 | 22% ±18 | 57% ±22 | 22% ±18 | 20 | 9% ±10 | 32% ±41 | 59% ±68 | 94% | 2.0d | 0.43% | 0.22% | 32 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 6,631.73–6,641.9 (+0.3%) | 1.4 | 3.8% | 5h | 5.8d ago · 65× | 60% ±68 | building | building | building | building | 7 | 31% ±24 | 59% ±68 | 94% | 94% | 1.0d | — | — | 14 → 1 |
| 7D VAL · 7D POC | 6,628.57–6,634.17 (+0.3%) | 1.1 | 2.0% | 2h | 5.8d ago · 78× | 70% ±52 | 32% ±21 | 32% ±21 | 36% ±22 | 19 | 48% ±22 | 67% ±53 | 95% | 95% | 5h | 0.26% | 0.35% | 19 → 1 | |
| 14D POC | 6,611.24 (+0.0%) | 0.0 | 6.4% | 9h | 5.8d ago · 51× | 93% ±35 | 31% ±25 | 31% ±25 | 38% ±26 | 13 | 80% ±22 | 93% ±35 | 93% | 93% | 1h | 0.17% | 0.26% | 13 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,610.77 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 6,580.89–6,594.45 (-0.2%) | 1.1 | 3.7% | 5h | 5.8d ago · 62× | 71% ±36 | 37% ±24 | 37% ±24 | 26% ±22 | 16 | 58% ±17 | 72% ±36 | 83% ±52 | 92% | 1h | 0.68% | 0.18% | 34 → 1 | |
| 30D POC | 6,585.98 (-0.4%) | 1.6 | 5.6% | 7h | 5.6d ago · 48× | 53% ±56 | 33% ±27 | 27% ±25 | 40% ±28 | 12 | 29% ±23 | 53% ±56 | 53% | 53% | 1.0d | 0.61% | 0.21% | 15 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,576.37 (-0.5%) | 2.2 | 1.2% | 1h | 7.6d ago · 58× | 17% ±37 | 29% ±27 | 36% ±28 | 36% ±28 | 11 | 9% ±12 | 17% ±37 | 17% | 39% | > 7d | 1.06% | 0.25% | 21 → 1 | |
| LVN zone | 6,547–6,574.11 (-0.6%) | 2.4 | 0.7% | 50m | 1.6d ago · 55× | 21% ±35 | 43% ±29 | 29% ±27 | 29% ±27 | 11 | 12% ±11 | 21% ±35 | 41% ±68 | 76% | 4.0d | 0.65% | 0.07% | 32 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,485.99 (-1.9%) | 8.1 | 4.4% | 7h | 6.8d ago · 41× | 4% ±13 | building | building | building | building | 3 | 2% ±4 | 4% ±12 | 4% ±22 | 8% | > 7d | — | — | 51 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 6,610.77 | 6,568.45 | 6,634.17 | stop | -0.04% |
| 14d | POC | short | 6,610.77 | 6,576.37 | 6,650.56 | target | -0.04% |