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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-10-17 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D POC · 14D VAH | 6,749.7–6,757.15 (+1.7%) | 3.1 | 8.3% | 14h | 5.5d ago · 66× | 31% ±34 | 32% ±18 | 40% ±19 | 28% ±17 | 26 | 6% ±7 | 30% ±34 | 65% ±66 | 94% | 2.1d | 0.35% | 0.26% | 42 → 1 | |
| 30D VAH | 6,710.34 (+1.2%) | 2.1 | 12.0% | 17h | 7.6d ago · 49× | 34% ±35 | 29% ±19 | 29% ±19 | 42% ±21 | 21 | 13% ±10 | 33% ±35 | 77% ±58 | 93% | 2.0d | 0.23% | 0.47% | 44 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 6,710.34–6,720.98 (+1.2%) | 2.1 | 12.0% | 17h | 5.6d ago · 65× | 59% ±56 | 27% ±25 | 20% ±23 | 53% ±28 | 12 | 5% ±11 | 56% ±56 | 95% | 95% | 1.0d | 0.41% | 0.47% | 17 → 1 | |
| 7D VAH | 6,679.05 (+0.7%) | 1.2 | 9.2% | 13h | 5.4d ago · 71× | 69% ±32 | 24% ±15 | 44% ±17 | 32% ±16 | 31 | 39% ±13 | 68% ±31 | 84% ±41 | 98% | 21h | 0.31% | 0.26% | 52 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL · 7D POC · 30D POC | 6,650.77–6,653.96 (+0.3%) | 0.5 | 19.9% | 1.3d | 5.6d ago · 78× | 90% ±27 | 26% ±18 | 31% ±19 | 42% ±20 | 23 | 79% ±15 | 90% ±26 | 94% ±34 | 94% | 1h | 0.39% | 0.44% | 29 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,633.65 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL | 6,616.65 (-0.3%) | 0.5 | 7.4% | 11h | 7.3d ago · 67× | 79% ±40 | 25% ±21 | 50% ±24 | 25% ±21 | 17 | 77% ±16 | 80% ±35 | 83% ±52 | 87% | 1h | 0.83% | 0.25% | 28 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,597.58 (-0.5%) | 1.0 | 5.3% | 7h | 6.6d ago · 41× | 24% ±48 | building | building | building | building | 6 | 30% ±21 | 35% ±54 | 35% | 35% | > 7d | — | — | 18 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,633.65 | 6,527.27 | 6,749.7 | expired | -0.44% |