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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-12-09 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,895.78 (+0.6%) | 2.0 | 0.4% | 20m | 5.4d ago · 66× | 33% ±29 | 28% ±15 | 44% ±16 | 29% ±15 | 35 | 13% ±8 | 33% ±28 | 53% ±49 | 80% ±55 | 3.0d | 0.48% | 0.25% | 64 → 2 | |
| 14D POC · 30D POC · 7D VAH | 6,861.3–6,861.64 (+0.0%) | 0.2 | 6.2% | 7h | 5.3d ago · 71× | 86% ±20 | 25% ±13 | 43% ±15 | 32% ±14 | 41 | 72% ±11 | 87% ±19 | 91% ±27 | 95% ±31 | 1h | 0.36% | 0.22% | 70 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,857.94 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D POC | 6,855.24 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 6.2% | 13h | 7.4d ago · 75× | 80% ±26 | 26% ±14 | 38% ±16 | 36% ±16 | 36 | 60% ±13 | 80% ±26 | 91% ±32 | 95% | 1h | 0.51% | 0.25% | 56 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 6,826.82–6,830.91 (-0.4%) | 1.4 | 9.4% | 13h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 49% ±35 | 22% ±15 | 43% ±18 | 35% ±17 | 30 | 39% ±14 | 48% ±35 | 58% ±56 | 75% | 1.5d | 0.81% | 0.41% | 49 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,688.91 (-2.5%) | 8.8 | 1.6% | 2h | 6.5d ago · 41× | 5% ±10 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 15 | 3% ±3 | 5% ±10 | 11% ±26 | 17% ±42 | > 7d | 1.30% | 0.50% | 114 → 3 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAH | short | 6,857.94 | 6,855.24 | 6,867.17 | target | +0.22% |