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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-12-15 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,903.46 (+1.3%) | 3.1 | 2.0% | 2h | 7.6d ago · 49× | 23% ±22 | 30% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 33% ±17 | 30 | 6% ±5 | 23% ±22 | 53% ±44 | 69% ±64 | 2.9d | 0.53% | 0.28% | 83 → 2 | |
| 14D VAH · 7D VAH · 30D POC | 6,863.69–6,868.94 (+0.7%) | 1.7 | 7.3% | 10h | 5.4d ago · 71× | 42% ±28 | 25% ±13 | 47% ±15 | 28% ±13 | 43 | 23% ±10 | 42% ±28 | 64% ±47 | 84% ±50 | 1.8d | 0.43% | 0.21% | 72 → 2 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 6,839.73–6,845.85 (+0.4%) | 0.9 | 12.7% | 23h | 5.6d ago · 78× | 78% ±27 | 31% ±15 | 37% ±16 | 32% ±15 | 35 | 59% ±13 | 78% ±26 | 90% ±34 | 94% | 3h | 0.43% | 0.27% | 57 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,817.81 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 10.0% | 12h | 6.6d ago · 44× | 86% ±30 | 20% ±19 | 50% ±24 | 30% ±22 | 17 | 70% ±17 | 87% ±30 | 93% ±35 | 97% | 1h | 0.52% | 0.42% | 28 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,815.21 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL | 6,814.75 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 8.3% | 10h | 7.4d ago · 67× | 87% ±24 | 27% ±15 | 49% ±17 | 24% ±14 | 34 | 75% ±12 | 87% ±24 | 90% ±33 | 94% | 1h | 0.91% | 0.26% | 50 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,696.36 (-1.7%) | 4.1 | 2.9% | 4h | 6.6d ago · 41× | 17% ±25 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 15 | 11% ±9 | 17% ±24 | 36% ±54 | 42% | > 7d | 1.30% | 0.50% | 52 → 1 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,815.21 | 6,769.32 | 6,839.73 | expired | +0.48% |