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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-12-16 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,903.46 (+1.7%) | 4.1 | 2.0% | 2h | 7.6d ago · 49× | 13% ±17 | 30% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 33% ±17 | 30 | 2% ±3 | 12% ±17 | 39% ±43 | 58% ±68 | 5.1d | 0.53% | 0.28% | 88 → 2 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 14D VAH · 7D VAH · 30D POC | 6,845.51–6,868.94 (+0.9%) | 2.1 | 12.7% | 22h | 5.4d ago · 78× | 31% ±24 | 27% ±13 | 43% ±15 | 30% ±14 | 43 | 11% ±6 | 31% ±23 | 53% ±44 | 78% ±58 | 2.8d | 0.43% | 0.23% | 89 → 2 | |
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 6,811–6,816.21 (+0.4%) | 0.9 | 7.1% | 9h | 6.5d ago · 49× | 80% ±32 | 21% ±19 | 46% ±24 | 33% ±22 | 17 | 58% ±16 | 81% ±31 | 95% ±32 | 97% | 2h | 0.48% | 0.41% | 37 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,785.84 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 6,696.36 (-1.3%) | 3.1 | 2.8% | 4h | 6.6d ago · 41× | 21% ±30 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 15 | 15% ±11 | 20% ±29 | 39% ±67 | 46% | > 7d | 1.30% | 0.50% | 44 → 1 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 6,785.84 | 6,731.14 | 6,845.51 | expired | -0.19% |
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,785.84 | 6,738.96 | 6,849.41 | expired | -0.19% |