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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-12-18 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,903.46 (+2.0%) | 4.7 | 1.9% | 2h | 7.7d ago · 49× | 11% ±16 | 30% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 33% ±17 | 30 | 2% ±3 | 11% ±16 | 30% ±40 | 48% ±69 | > 7d | 0.53% | 0.28% | 91 → 2 | |
| 30D POC · 14D VAH | 6,868.94–6,881.5 (+1.5%) | 3.5 | 6.5% | 8h | 5.6d ago · 66× | 14% ±18 | 29% ±15 | 43% ±16 | 28% ±15 | 37 | 4% ±4 | 14% ±18 | 34% ±41 | 57% ±69 | 6.2d | 0.49% | 0.24% | 92 → 2 | |
| 14D POC · 7D VAH | 6,847.64–6,850.38 (+1.2%) | 2.8 | 12.2% | 22h | 5.5d ago · 71× | 21% ±23 | 26% ±13 | 44% ±15 | 30% ±14 | 43 | 4% ±4 | 21% ±22 | 43% ±49 | 73% ±62 | 4.2d | 0.37% | 0.17% | 76 → 2 | |
| 7D POC | 6,814.69 (+0.7%) | 1.6 | 10.2% | 14h | 5.7d ago · 78× | 50% ±33 | 28% ±15 | 41% ±16 | 31% ±15 | 36 | 30% ±12 | 52% ±31 | 76% ±48 | 90% | 1.0d | 0.44% | 0.34% | 58 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,797.3 (+0.4%) | 1.0 | 4.7% | 5h | 6.6d ago · 44× | 81% ±29 | 23% ±19 | 50% ±22 | 27% ±20 | 19 | 59% ±15 | 82% ±29 | 95% ±29 | 98% | 2h | 0.62% | 0.40% | 42 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,767.15 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL | 6,751.55 (-0.2%) | 0.5 | 2.8% | 5h | 7.4d ago · 67× | 82% ±23 | 26% ±14 | 46% ±16 | 28% ±15 | 36 | 65% ±12 | 82% ±23 | 87% ±33 | 90% ±42 | 1h | 0.86% | 0.35% | 66 → 2 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,696.36 (-1.0%) | 2.4 | 2.1% | 3h | 6.7d ago · 41× | 31% ±37 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 15 | 22% ±14 | 31% ±37 | 49% ±69 | 56% | 3.9d | 1.30% | 0.50% | 34 → 1 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,767.15 | 6,682.96 | 6,847.64 | expired | -1.02% |