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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-12-22 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,903.46 (+0.5%) | 1.4 | 1.9% | 2h | 7.5d ago · 49× | 48% ±31 | 30% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 33% ±17 | 30 | 25% ±11 | 48% ±31 | 77% ±48 | 95% | 1.0d | 0.53% | 0.28% | 58 → 1 | |
| 30D POC | 6,868.94 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 6.8% | 8h | 5.5d ago · 46× | 83% ±28 | 23% ±16 | 40% ±18 | 37% ±18 | 27 | 71% ±14 | 83% ±28 | 93% ±36 | 95% | 1h | 0.41% | 0.30% | 39 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,866.33 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAH | 6,865.02 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 6.8% | 9h | 13.5d ago · 40× | 68% ±46 | 14% ±16 | 48% ±23 | 38% ±22 | 18 | 60% ±20 | 68% ±46 | 80% | 88% | 3h | 0.37% | 0.10% | 23 → 1 | |
| 7D VAH · 14D POC · 7D POC | 6,833.22–6,840.13 (-0.4%) | 1.0 | 14.1% | 1.0d | 5.4d ago · 75× | 57% ±28 | 25% ±13 | 40% ±15 | 35% ±15 | 40 | 42% ±11 | 57% ±28 | 76% ±42 | 84% ±51 | 20h | 0.47% | 0.22% | 74 → 2 | |
| 14D VAL · 7D VAL | 6,778.74–6,782.66 (-1.2%) | 3.2 | 2.9% | 6h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 20% ±19 | 26% ±14 | 39% ±16 | 35% ±16 | 36 | 9% ±6 | 20% ±19 | 36% ±38 | 55% ±69 | 5.9d | 0.78% | 0.40% | 103 → 2 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,765.39 (-1.5%) | 3.8 | 2.9% | 3h | 6.5d ago · 41× | 15% ±21 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 33% ±24 | 15 | 11% ±8 | 15% ±21 | 30% ±45 | 35% ±66 | > 7d | 1.30% | 0.50% | 64 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAH | long | 6,866.33 | 6,927.71 | 6,833.22 | expired | +0.22% |
| 14d | VAH | long | 6,866.33 | 6,948.69 | 6,836.65 | expired | +0.22% |