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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-08-18 13:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,816.7 (+1.4%) | 7.0 | <0.1% | 10m | 6.8d ago · 49× | 4% ±7 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 1% ±1 | 4% ±7 | 7% ±17 | 34% ±46 | > 7d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 169 → 4 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,784.15 (+1.0%) | 4.9 | 3.3% | 6h | 4.6d ago · 71× | 4% ±7 | 26% ±9 | 43% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 95 | 1% ±1 | 4% ±7 | 13% ±22 | 49% ±49 | > 7d | 0.40% | 0.19% | 167 → 4 | |
| 14D VAH | 7,762.48 (+0.7%) | 3.5 | 2.0% | 4h | 4.8d ago · 66× | 13% ±11 | 32% ±10 | 41% ±11 | 27% ±10 | 78 | 2% ±2 | 13% ±11 | 28% ±25 | 56% ±44 | 5.9d | 0.42% | 0.19% | 224 → 5 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC · 30D POC | 7,751.18–7,753.85 (+0.6%) | 2.8 | 8.0% | 13h | 4.8d ago · 78× | 17% ±15 | 30% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 33% ±10 | 83 | 3% ±3 | 17% ±15 | 33% ±33 | 65% ±47 | 5.0d | 0.49% | 0.30% | 147 → 4 | |
| 7D VAL | 7,716.65 (+0.1%) | 0.6 | 2.5% | 3h | 5.7d ago · 49× | 73% ±23 | 33% ±14 | 31% ±13 | 37% ±14 | 46 | 51% ±11 | 73% ±23 | 86% ±30 | 99% ±15 | 3h | 0.52% | 0.42% | 84 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 7,716.14–7,761.39 (+0.1%) | 0.6 | 2.4% | 3h | 4.8d ago · 65× | 70% ±17 | 29% ±11 | 32% ±11 | 40% ±11 | 70 | 52% ±8 | 70% ±17 | 81% ±25 | 88% ±32 | 3h | 0.54% | 0.40% | 168 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,706.97 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAL | 7,703.74 (-0.0%) | 0.2 | 1.6% | 3h | 6.6d ago · 58× | 66% ±22 | 25% ±11 | 35% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 60 | 47% ±9 | 66% ±22 | 75% ±35 | 85% ±41 | 18h | 0.63% | 0.45% | 108 → 3 | |
| LVN zone | 7,615.59–7,685.98 (-0.3%) | 1.3 | 0.2% | 13m | 13.7d ago · 54× | 50% ±20 | 28% ±11 | 28% ±11 | 43% ±12 | 64 | 38% ±8 | 50% ±20 | 63% ±33 | 81% ±39 | 1.0d | 0.51% | 0.38% | 147 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,499.95–7,515.03 (-2.5%) | 12 | 2.5% | 3h | 4.8d ago · 62× | 12% ±31 | 27% ±9 | 27% ±9 | 46% ±11 | 86 | 7% ±10 | 11% ±31 | 23% | 23% | > 7d | 0.45% | 0.46% | 25 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,439.61 (-3.5%) | 17 | 4.1% | 5h | 5.8d ago · 41× | 3% ±6 | 22% ±12 | 42% ±14 | 36% ±14 | 47 | 2% ±2 | 3% ±6 | 9% ±16 | 14% ±30 | > 7d | 0.77% | 0.55% | 207 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 7,706.97 | 7,639.47 | 7,752.21 | expired | -0.17% |