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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-16 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,721.38 (+2.2%) | 7.8 | 6.2% | 10h | 6.9d ago · 49× | 2% ±5 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 1% ±1 | 2% ±4 | 4% ±12 | 27% ±44 | > 7d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 183 → 4 | |
| 14D VAH | 7,689.53 (+1.8%) | 6.3 | 7.2% | 9h | 4.8d ago · 66× | 4% ±6 | 32% ±10 | 39% ±11 | 29% ±10 | 81 | 1% ±1 | 4% ±6 | 14% ±20 | 35% ±42 | > 7d | 0.44% | 0.19% | 193 → 5 | |
| 30D POC | 7,672.59 (+1.6%) | 5.5 | 14.0% | 1.0d | 4.9d ago · 46× | 6% ±10 | 27% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 32% ±13 | 53 | 1% ±1 | 6% ±10 | 15% ±25 | 41% ±56 | > 7d | 0.47% | 0.25% | 138 → 3 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,639.79 (+1.2%) | 4.0 | 7.0% | 9h | 4.7d ago · 71× | 8% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 43% ±10 | 33% ±9 | 98 | 1% ±2 | 8% ±9 | 21% ±23 | 52% ±44 | 7.0d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 216 → 5 | |
| HVN zone | 7,636.99–7,642.26 (+1.1%) | 3.9 | 7.1% | 8h | 4.9d ago · 65× | 22% ±20 | 31% ±10 | 32% ±10 | 37% ±11 | 81 | 2% ±3 | 21% ±19 | 36% ±38 | 61% ±67 | 4.9d | 0.54% | 0.36% | 104 → 2 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,626.44 (+1.0%) | 3.4 | 4.8% | 5h | 5.8d ago · 32× | 43% ±37 | 33% ±16 | 25% ±15 | 42% ±17 | 33 | 11% ±9 | 47% ±35 | 66% ±54 | 74% | 1.1d | 0.59% | 0.59% | 46 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL · 7D VAL · 14D POC · 7D POC | 7,572.51–7,588.16 (+0.3%) | 0.9 | 0.9% | 36m | 4.9d ago · 78× | 52% ±20 | 31% ±10 | 35% ±10 | 34% ±10 | 89 | 32% ±8 | 52% ±20 | 66% ±33 | 85% ±35 | 1.8d | 0.49% | 0.34% | 147 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,551.81 | |||||||||||||||||||
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.