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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-17 16:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,718.74 (+1.1%) | 3.6 | 7.8% | 13h | 6.8d ago · 49× | 10% ±9 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 1% ±1 | 10% ±9 | 27% ±23 | 48% ±40 | > 7d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 252 → 6 | |
| 30D POC · 14D VAH | 7,672.59–7,677.08 (+0.5%) | 1.7 | 15.2% | 1.1d | 4.7d ago · 66× | 32% ±16 | 30% ±10 | 40% ±11 | 30% ±10 | 81 | 14% ±5 | 32% ±16 | 51% ±30 | 72% ±39 | 3.1d | 0.45% | 0.21% | 201 → 5 | |
| HVN zone | 7,652.81–7,687.09 (+0.3%) | 0.9 | 6.0% | 10h | 4.8d ago · 65× | 66% ±15 | 31% ±10 | 32% ±10 | 37% ±11 | 81 | 45% ±7 | 66% ±15 | 79% ±23 | 85% ±31 | 18h | 0.54% | 0.36% | 218 → 5 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,639.79 (+0.1%) | 0.3 | 8.3% | 11h | 4.6d ago · 71× | 74% ±15 | 25% ±9 | 43% ±10 | 33% ±9 | 98 | 57% ±7 | 74% ±15 | 84% ±22 | 88% ±29 | 2h | 0.37% | 0.20% | 205 → 5 | |
| at post · 7,631.46 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 7,618.53 (-0.2%) | 0.5 | 3.4% | 5h | 5.8d ago · 41× | 66% ±23 | 23% ±12 | 40% ±14 | 38% ±13 | 50 | 49% ±10 | 66% ±23 | 77% ±37 | 84% ±51 | 18h | 0.73% | 0.56% | 97 → 2 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 7,572.51–7,588.16 (-0.6%) | 1.8 | 6.3% | 7h | 4.7d ago · 75× | 31% ±16 | 24% ±9 | 37% ±10 | 39% ±10 | 92 | 13% ±5 | 31% ±16 | 54% ±29 | 73% ±39 | 3.1d | 0.49% | 0.38% | 206 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.