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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-18 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,695 (+0.6%) | 1.9 | 3.8% | 6h | 6.5d ago · 49× | 24% ±15 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 9% ±4 | 24% ±15 | 48% ±31 | 68% ±46 | 3.8d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 173 → 4 | |
| 30D POC | 7,669.95 (+0.3%) | 0.8 | 14.2% | 1.1d | 4.5d ago · 46× | 66% ±20 | 27% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 32% ±13 | 53 | 47% ±9 | 65% ±20 | 81% ±29 | 85% ±40 | 18h | 0.47% | 0.25% | 131 → 3 | |
| HVN zone | 7,655.45–7,684.46 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 6.7% | 11h | 4.5d ago · 65× | 73% ±17 | 31% ±10 | 33% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 82 | 57% ±8 | 74% ±17 | 84% ±24 | 89% ±31 | 2h | 0.53% | 0.35% | 153 → 4 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,652.69 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 6.5% | 10h | 4.3d ago · 71× | 80% ±15 | 25% ±8 | 43% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 99 | 63% ±7 | 81% ±14 | 87% ±21 | 91% ±29 | 1h | 0.35% | 0.20% | 178 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,650.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 7,623.8–7,650.17 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 7.3% | 11h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 81% ±16 | 26% ±9 | 26% ±9 | 48% ±10 | 90 | 68% ±8 | 81% ±16 | 91% ±20 | 94% ±28 | 1h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 138 → 3 | |
| 14D VAH | 7,648.5 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 7.7% | 11h | 12.5d ago · 40× | 78% ±26 | 18% ±12 | 47% ±15 | 36% ±14 | 42 | 68% ±12 | 78% ±26 | 88% ±37 | 93% | 1h | 0.37% | 0.24% | 57 → 1 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC | 7,636.94–7,637 (-0.2%) | 0.6 | 12.6% | 15h | 4.5d ago · 75× | 72% ±16 | 25% ±9 | 37% ±10 | 38% ±10 | 93 | 56% ±7 | 73% ±16 | 87% ±21 | 92% ±27 | 3h | 0.45% | 0.30% | 185 → 4 | |
| 7D VAL · 30D VAL | 7,589.52–7,594.42 (-0.7%) | 2.4 | 4.6% | 6h | 5.5d ago · 67× | 28% ±14 | 22% ±9 | 38% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 85 | 10% ±4 | 28% ±14 | 47% ±28 | 67% ±41 | 3.6d | 0.63% | 0.53% | 221 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,577.08 (-1.0%) | 3.2 | 3.3% | 3h | 6.3d ago · 58× | 22% ±14 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 5% ±3 | 22% ±14 | 44% ±29 | 60% ±43 | 5.0d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 193 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.