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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH | 7,779.8 (+0.5%) | 1.7 | 1.1% | 1h | 4.6d ago · 71× | 37% ±16 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 17% ±5 | 37% ±16 | 55% ±28 | 72% ±39 | 2.9d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 219 → 5 | |
| 7D POC | 7,767.24 (+0.3%) | 1.1 | 5.6% | 6h | 4.8d ago · 78× | 63% ±17 | 29% ±9 | 35% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 91 | 43% ±7 | 63% ±17 | 76% ±27 | 86% ±34 | 18h | 0.44% | 0.35% | 187 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,765.72–7,771.21 (+0.3%) | 1.0 | 5.4% | 6h | 4.8d ago · 65× | 65% ±15 | 31% ±10 | 33% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 85 | 44% ±6 | 65% ±15 | 77% ±23 | 85% ±28 | 18h | 0.54% | 0.35% | 232 → 6 | |
| at post · 7,743.41 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH · 7D VAL | 7,708.03–7,721.82 (-0.3%) | 1.0 | 5.7% | 10h | 6.5d ago · 67× | 56% ±17 | 19% ±8 | 42% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 85 | 35% ±7 | 55% ±17 | 66% ±29 | 78% ±40 | 19h | 0.47% | 0.43% | 186 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,705.35–7,719.07 (-0.3%) | 1.1 | 6.4% | 12h | 4.7d ago · 62× | 65% ±16 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 48% ±10 | 92 | 44% ±7 | 65% ±16 | 79% ±23 | 87% ±30 | 19h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 214 → 5 | |
| 30D POC · 14D POC | 7,635.38–7,638.12 (-1.4%) | 4.8 | 10.0% | 14h | 4.6d ago · 63× | 12% ±14 | 25% ±10 | 35% ±11 | 40% ±11 | 74 | 2% ±3 | 12% ±14 | 30% ±34 | 52% ±57 | 6.9d | 0.48% | 0.40% | 119 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,576.38 (-2.2%) | 7.6 | 2.4% | 2h | 5.8d ago · 41× | 6% ±8 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 2% ±2 | 6% ±8 | 15% ±20 | 24% ±37 | > 7d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 222 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,507.77 (-3.0%) | 11 | <0.1% | 3m | 6.5d ago · 58× | 5% ±8 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 3% ±3 | 5% ±8 | 15% ±22 | 27% ±44 | > 7d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 171 → 4 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.