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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-28 13:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH | 7,765.44 (+0.8%) | 2.6 | 6.0% | 6h | 4.3d ago · 71× | 21% ±13 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 5% ±3 | 21% ±13 | 38% ±28 | 64% ±42 | 5.2d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 222 → 5 | |
| 7D POC · 30D VAH · 14D VAH | 7,711.02–7,719.07 (+0.1%) | 0.3 | 7.5% | 11h | 4.5d ago · 78× | 74% ±15 | 30% ±9 | 39% ±10 | 32% ±10 | 91 | 56% ±7 | 74% ±15 | 83% ±22 | 90% ±26 | 2h | 0.43% | 0.26% | 196 → 5 | |
| at post · 7,703.59 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL | 7,693.67 (-0.1%) | 0.4 | 5.4% | 7h | 6.3d ago · 67× | 78% ±16 | 22% ±9 | 36% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 86 | 54% ±8 | 78% ±16 | 85% ±23 | 92% ±26 | 3h | 0.56% | 0.51% | 164 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,686.14 (-0.2%) | 0.7 | 6.1% | 7h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 69% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 48% ±10 | 92 | 51% ±7 | 69% ±15 | 84% ±21 | 88% ±28 | 3h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 207 → 5 | |
| 30D POC · 14D POC | 7,635.38–7,638.12 (-0.8%) | 2.8 | 11.5% | 15h | 4.3d ago · 63× | 20% ±18 | 25% ±10 | 35% ±11 | 40% ±11 | 74 | 6% ±4 | 20% ±18 | 45% ±37 | 65% ±54 | 4.1d | 0.48% | 0.40% | 119 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,576.38 (-1.7%) | 5.4 | 2.8% | 3h | 5.5d ago · 41× | 10% ±10 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 3% ±2 | 10% ±10 | 24% ±25 | 36% ±42 | > 7d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 193 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,507.77 (-2.5%) | 8.2 | <0.1% | 3m | 6.3d ago · 58× | 7% ±9 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 2% ±2 | 7% ±9 | 19% ±23 | 35% ±42 | > 7d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 199 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.