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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-28 17:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH | 7,779.45 (+1.1%) | 3.3 | 1.6% | 2h | 4.5d ago · 66× | 14% ±11 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 29% ±10 | 84 | 3% ±2 | 14% ±11 | 31% ±24 | 59% ±39 | 5.8d | 0.40% | 0.20% | 244 → 6 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,742.72 (+0.6%) | 1.8 | 5.4% | 8h | 4.3d ago · 71× | 33% ±16 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 13% ±5 | 33% ±16 | 51% ±28 | 69% ±41 | 3.0d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 212 → 5 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 30D VAH | 7,703.84–7,713.58 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 7.5% | 11h | 4.5d ago · 78× | 76% ±17 | 30% ±9 | 36% ±10 | 34% ±10 | 91 | 58% ±8 | 76% ±17 | 85% ±25 | 90% ±30 | 2h | 0.44% | 0.29% | 149 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,702.61–7,721.82 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 7.2% | 10h | 4.5d ago · 65× | 74% ±17 | 31% ±10 | 33% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 85 | 59% ±8 | 74% ±17 | 85% ±25 | 90% ±30 | 2h | 0.54% | 0.35% | 150 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,698.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,686.14 (-0.2%) | 0.5 | 6.7% | 8h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 74% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 48% ±10 | 92 | 56% ±7 | 74% ±15 | 86% ±20 | 91% ±25 | 2h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 191 → 5 | |
| 7D VAL | 7,664.96 (-0.4%) | 1.3 | 7.6% | 12h | 6.3d ago · 67× | 57% ±17 | 22% ±9 | 36% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 86 | 32% ±7 | 57% ±17 | 68% ±29 | 84% ±36 | 22h | 0.56% | 0.51% | 184 → 4 | |
| 30D POC · 14D VAL | 7,631.26–7,638.12 (-0.8%) | 2.4 | 11.6% | 15h | 4.3d ago · 58× | 27% ±16 | 26% ±10 | 34% ±11 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 7% ±4 | 27% ±16 | 49% ±31 | 62% ±48 | 3.7d | 0.53% | 0.47% | 180 → 4 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,576.38 (-1.6%) | 4.9 | 2.9% | 3h | 5.5d ago · 41× | 10% ±11 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 3% ±3 | 10% ±11 | 27% ±27 | 39% ±48 | > 7d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 186 → 4 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.