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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-10-02 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.66 to 0.15) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH | 7,729.85–7,734.22 (+0.1%) | 0.3 | 4.6% | 7h | 4.2d ago · 71× | 75% ±14 | 28% ±9 | 42% ±10 | 30% ±9 | 101 | 58% ±7 | 76% ±14 | 84% ±21 | 90% ±27 | 2h | 0.40% | 0.19% | 207 → 5 | |
| at post · 7,722.72 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 7,702.61–7,721.82 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 8.3% | 14h | 4.3d ago · 62× | 78% ±16 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 94 | 64% ±8 | 78% ±16 | 88% ±21 | 93% ±25 | 1h | 0.43% | 0.46% | 155 → 4 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 30D VAH | 7,710.84–7,720.89 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 8.5% | 15h | 4.3d ago · 75× | 80% ±16 | 22% ±8 | 39% ±10 | 38% ±10 | 95 | 65% ±8 | 80% ±16 | 88% ±22 | 92% ±31 | 1h | 0.43% | 0.35% | 138 → 3 | |
| 7D VAL | 7,669.18 (-0.7%) | 2.1 | 9.4% | 12h | 6.1d ago · 67× | 34% ±16 | 23% ±9 | 35% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 89 | 14% ±5 | 34% ±16 | 48% ±30 | 68% ±41 | 3.2d | 0.56% | 0.50% | 195 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,654.82 (-0.9%) | 2.7 | 3.9% | 6h | 6.1d ago · 58× | 26% ±16 | 23% ±10 | 38% ±12 | 39% ±12 | 68 | 8% ±4 | 26% ±15 | 48% ±31 | 62% ±48 | 3.9d | 0.53% | 0.46% | 186 → 4 | |
| 30D POC | 7,638.12 (-1.1%) | 3.3 | 10.2% | 15h | 4.2d ago · 48× | 19% ±18 | 30% ±12 | 30% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 58 | 3% ±3 | 19% ±18 | 45% ±40 | 59% ±56 | 4.2d | 0.51% | 0.50% | 109 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,576.38 (-1.9%) | 5.8 | 2.5% | 3h | 5.4d ago · 41× | 9% ±10 | 24% ±12 | 40% ±13 | 36% ±13 | 52 | 2% ±2 | 9% ±10 | 22% ±25 | 34% ±41 | > 7d | 0.73% | 0.54% | 197 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.