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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-04 16:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,448 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0032), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.22 to 0.43) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 4,646.35 (+8.2%) | 10 | 1.7% | 9h | 22.0d ago · 44× | 5% ±10 | building | building | building | building | 8 | 2% ±2 | 4% ±9 | 21% ±32 | 64% ±54 | 6.0d | — | — | 114 → 3 |
| 14D VAH | 4,617.62 (+7.5%) | 9.5 | 2.4% | 14h | 3.9d ago · 70× | 17% ±16 | 42% ±24 | 5% ±11 | 53% ±24 | 16 | 2% ±3 | 17% ±16 | 44% ±37 | 95% ±24 | 3.6d | 1.98% | 2.53% | 126 → 3 | |
| HVN zone | 4,561.44–4,632.2 (+6.2%) | 7.9 | 1.9% | 12h | 1.2d ago · 83× | 26% ±43 | 63% ±26 | 13% ±18 | 25% ±24 | 13 | 3% ±7 | 25% ±38 | 47% ±69 | 47% | > 7d | 2.69% | 1.55% | 28 → 1 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,425 (+3.0%) | 3.8 | 2.4% | 18h | 3.9d ago · 97× | 38% ±21 | 48% ±22 | 9% ±12 | 43% ±22 | 20 | 5% ±4 | 38% ±21 | 55% ±37 | 77% ±48 | 1.6d | 1.84% | 1.72% | 128 → 3 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 4,379.58–4,389.45 (+2.0%) | 2.5 | 3.1% | 1.0d | 3.7d ago · 104× | 42% ±32 | 49% ±24 | 9% ±14 | 42% ±24 | 16 | 16% ±10 | 42% ±32 | 54% ±56 | 77% | 2.6d | 2.20% | 1.85% | 52 → 1 | |
| 30D POC | 4,299.65 (+0.1%) | 0.1 | 4.4% | 1.3d | 3.7d ago · 67× | 94% ±34 | building | building | building | building | 7 | 94% ±13 | 94% ±34 | 94% | 94% | 1h | — | — | 14 → 1 |
| at post · 4,294.64 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 4,270.01–4,279.69 (-0.3%) | 0.4 | 3.7% | 1.0d | 3.5d ago · 85× | 64% ±47 | 71% ±27 | 7% ±15 | 21% ±24 | 11 | 58% ±19 | 64% ±47 | 70% | 73% | 3h | 3.36% | 1.10% | 26 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,179.37 (-2.7%) | 3.4 | 1.6% | 10h | 1.9d ago · 31× | 19% ±39 | building | building | building | building | 1 | 4% ±8 | 19% ±39 | 19% | 19% | > 7d | — | — | 24 → 1 |
| LVN zone | 4,052.01–4,094.47 (-4.7%) | 5.9 | 0.3% | 1h | 1.9d ago · 47× | 11% ±12 | 61% ±25 | 22% ±21 | 17% ±19 | 15 | 1% ±2 | 11% ±12 | 19% ±25 | 23% ±41 | > 7d | 3.74% | 1.53% | 169 → 4 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | POC | short | 4,294.64 | 4,179.37 | 4,646.35 | expired | -0.01% |