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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-22 04:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,441 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0002 to 0.0030), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.23 to 0.44) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 4,556.3–4,559.01 (+6.3%) | 10 | 1.6% | 8h | 3.5d ago · 97× | 7% ±10 | 44% ±19 | 9% ±11 | 47% ±20 | 25 | 1% ±2 | 7% ±10 | 27% ±29 | 66% ±46 | 5.3d | 2.00% | 1.65% | 162 → 4 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 4,503.44–4,504.58 (+5.0%) | 8.2 | 3.2% | 1.1d | 3.3d ago · 104× | 7% ±18 | 46% ±20 | 7% ±10 | 47% ±20 | 24 | 3% ±5 | 7% ±18 | 27% ±50 | 79% | 4.4d | 2.13% | 1.60% | 46 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 4,432.19 (+3.4%) | 5.5 | 2.9% | 14h | 7.3d ago · 56× | 30% ±52 | building | building | building | building | 6 | 5% ±10 | 30% ±52 | 90% | 95% | 1.4d | — | — | 19 → 1 |
| 14D VAL · 30D POC | 4,295.39–4,299.51 (+0.2%) | 0.3 | 4.1% | 1.9d | 3.3d ago · 67× | 94% ±19 | 13% ±19 | 27% ±25 | 60% ±28 | 12 | 89% ±11 | 94% ±19 | 97% ±23 | 97% | 1h | 0.92% | 2.41% | 33 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 4,288.23–4,408.58 (+0.0%) | 0.0 | 3.5% | 1.4d | 1.3d ago · 83× | 89% ±25 | 60% ±23 | 10% ±14 | 30% ±22 | 17 | 83% ±13 | 89% ±25 | 94% ±32 | 94% | 1h | 2.14% | 1.55% | 34 → 1 | |
| at post · 4,288 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 4,273.19 (-0.3%) | 0.6 | 1.7% | 12h | 1.5d ago · 31× | building | building | building | building | building | 1 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 5 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAL | short | 4,288 | 4,026.01 | 4,503.44 | target | +2.63% |
| 30d | POC | short | 4,288 | 4,273.19 | 4,559.01 | target | +2.63% |