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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-22 00:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,440 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0033), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.17 to 0.39) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH | 4,669.4 (+7.8%) | 15 | 0.7% | 6h | 3.3d ago · 70× | 7% ±16 | 48% ±22 | 4% ±9 | 48% ±22 | 20 | 1% ±3 | 7% ±15 | 22% ±40 | 85% ±49 | 4.3d | 2.23% | 1.75% | 71 → 2 | |
| 30D VAH | 4,566.54 (+5.4%) | 10 | 1.6% | 8h | 21.4d ago · 44× | 4% ±7 | 31% ±29 | 15% ±22 | 54% ±31 | 10 | 1% ±2 | 4% ±7 | 22% ±27 | 57% ±49 | 6.3d | 1.68% | 2.10% | 161 → 4 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,549.13 (+5.0%) | 9.6 | 1.4% | 7h | 3.4d ago · 97× | 3% ±8 | 46% ±20 | 11% ±12 | 43% ±19 | 25 | 1% ±2 | 3% ±7 | 22% ±33 | 67% ±53 | 5.0d | 1.94% | 1.39% | 113 → 3 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 4,504.25–4,505.43 (+3.9%) | 7.6 | 2.7% | 22h | 3.2d ago · 104× | 7% ±17 | 46% ±20 | 7% ±10 | 47% ±20 | 24 | 3% ±5 | 7% ±17 | 30% ±52 | 76% | 4.4d | 2.13% | 1.60% | 48 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 4,446.19–4,513.88 (+2.6%) | 5.0 | 2.4% | 14h | 9.7d ago · 82× | 18% ±24 | 60% ±23 | 10% ±14 | 30% ±22 | 17 | 2% ±3 | 18% ±24 | 37% ±55 | 47% | > 7d | 2.14% | 1.55% | 58 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 4,433.75 (+2.3%) | 4.5 | 2.4% | 12h | 7.2d ago · 56× | 30% ±45 | building | building | building | building | 6 | 4% ±9 | 30% ±45 | 87% | 96% | 1.5d | — | — | 21 → 1 |
| 14D VAL | 4,393.32 (+1.4%) | 2.7 | 2.8% | 16h | 22.9d ago · 46× | 38% ±67 | building | building | building | building | 4 | 8% ±16 | 38% ±67 | 92% | 92% | 1.9d | — | — | 11 → 1 |
| at post · 4,333.45 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D POC | 4,299.51 (-0.8%) | 1.5 | 3.6% | 1.6d | 3.0d ago · 72× | 58% ±34 | 76% ±22 | 6% ±12 | 18% ±20 | 14 | 34% ±13 | 58% ±34 | 76% ±48 | 84% | 11h | 3.52% | 0.53% | 48 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,273.19 (-1.4%) | 2.7 | 1.4% | 10h | 1.3d ago · 31× | 13% ±27 | building | building | building | building | 1 | 5% ±7 | 13% ±27 | 13% ±46 | 13% | > 7d | — | — | 37 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 4,333.45 | 4,218.08 | 4,505.43 | target | +3.31% |
| 14d | VAL | short | 4,333.45 | 4,326.76 | 4,504.25 | target | +3.31% |