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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-30 20:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,441 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0002 to 0.0030), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.23 to 0.44) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 4,739.62 (+13.0%) | 18 | 0.2% | 2h | 21.5d ago · 44× | 2% ±5 | 31% ±29 | 15% ±22 | 54% ±31 | 10 | 2% ±2 | 2% ±5 | 14% ±26 | 52% ±57 | 6.7d | 1.68% | 2.10% | 130 → 3 | |
| 30D POC · 14D VAH | 4,299.73–4,314.36 (+2.5%) | 3.4 | 5.1% | 2.2d | 3.3d ago · 70× | 30% ±23 | 36% ±21 | 12% ±14 | 51% ±22 | 20 | 8% ±5 | 29% ±22 | 54% ±44 | 65% ±66 | 3.3d | 1.74% | 1.84% | 98 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 4,276.08–4,427.44 (+2.0%) | 2.6 | 2.4% | 18h | 1.3d ago · 83× | 38% ±27 | 62% ±22 | 10% ±14 | 29% ±21 | 18 | 10% ±7 | 37% ±26 | 41% ±48 | 43% ±69 | > 7d | 2.34% | 1.46% | 76 → 2 | |
| LVN zone | 4,219.32–4,257.16 (+0.6%) | 0.8 | 0.8% | 5h | 2.0d ago · 50× | 62% ±48 | building | building | building | building | 7 | 48% ±19 | 59% ±43 | 76% ±59 | 97% | 5h | — | — | 27 → 1 |
| 30D VAL | 4,200.4 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 1.8% | 13h | 105.5d ago · 18× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 1 → 1 |
| at post · 4,194.12 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 4,162.56–4,181.48 (-0.3%) | 0.4 | 2.9% | 1.0d | 1.4d ago · 85× | 84% ±20 | 44% ±20 | 26% ±18 | 30% ±18 | 24 | 70% ±10 | 84% ±20 | 86% ±34 | 93% ±37 | 1h | 1.92% | 1.45% | 78 → 2 | |
| 14D POC | 4,162.55 (-0.8%) | 1.0 | 2.8% | 22h | 3.1d ago · 85× | 77% ±24 | 54% ±21 | 4% ±9 | 42% ±21 | 21 | 63% ±11 | 78% ±22 | 90% ±30 | 91% ±40 | 2h | 2.62% | 1.85% | 76 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,136.4 (-1.4%) | 1.9 | 1.7% | 9h | 3.4d ago · 65× | 60% ±39 | 47% ±24 | 5% ±11 | 47% ±24 | 16 | 32% ±15 | 63% ±39 | 74% ±61 | 74% | 13h | 2.62% | 1.77% | 36 → 1 | |
| LVN zone | 4,049.04–4,086.88 (-2.6%) | 3.5 | 0.7% | 2h | 1.4d ago · 47× | 28% ±18 | 60% ±23 | 20% ±19 | 20% ±19 | 17 | 8% ±4 | 30% ±18 | 38% ±34 | 41% ±56 | > 7d | 3.52% | 1.53% | 143 → 3 | |
| 7D POC | 4,006.82 (-4.5%) | 6.0 | 2.1% | 22h | 3.1d ago · 106× | 14% ±16 | 60% ±18 | 3% ±7 | 37% ±18 | 27 | 3% ±3 | 14% ±16 | 29% ±36 | 55% ±56 | 6.1d | 2.91% | 1.22% | 114 → 3 | |
| 7D VAL | 3,868.74 (-7.8%) | 10 | 0.4% | 60m | 3.0d ago · 85× | 4% ±7 | 61% ±21 | 17% ±17 | 22% ±18 | 20 | 0% ±1 | 4% ±6 | 7% ±15 | 23% ±37 | > 7d | 2.57% | 0.74% | 208 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 3,822 (-8.9%) | 12 | <0.1% | 8m | 3.0d ago · 59× | 3% ±5 | 62% ±30 | 15% ±22 | 23% ±26 | 10 | 0% ±1 | 3% ±5 | 10% ±16 | 31% ±37 | > 7d | 2.68% | 0.82% | 257 → 6 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | POC | long | 4,194.12 | 4,314.36 | 3,822 | target | +3.31% |