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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-10-04 12:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,440 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0033), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.17 to 0.39) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 4,739.62 (+5.8%) | 7.6 | 0.3% | 2h | 21.4d ago · 44× | 5% ±7 | 31% ±29 | 15% ±22 | 54% ±31 | 10 | 1% ±1 | 5% ±7 | 21% ±24 | 44% ±43 | > 7d | 1.68% | 2.10% | 193 → 5 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,590.83 (+2.5%) | 3.3 | 1.9% | 15h | 3.4d ago · 97× | 46% ±18 | 42% ±18 | 10% ±11 | 48% ±19 | 28 | 9% ±4 | 46% ±18 | 65% ±31 | 81% ±38 | 1.2d | 1.84% | 1.94% | 167 → 4 | |
| 7D POC | 4,480.98 (+0.1%) | 0.1 | 4.4% | 2.0d | 3.2d ago · 104× | 96% ±12 | 59% ±19 | 7% ±10 | 34% ±18 | 26 | 82% ±9 | 96% ±12 | 96% ±20 | 97% ±24 | 1h | 2.20% | 1.44% | 65 → 2 | |
| at post · 4,478.04 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 4,276.08–4,351.76 (-2.8%) | 3.7 | 2.5% | 13h | 1.3d ago · 85× | 45% ±27 | 45% ±19 | 24% ±16 | 31% ±18 | 26 | 10% ±6 | 44% ±26 | 73% ±39 | 75% ±60 | 1.2d | 2.29% | 1.52% | 81 → 2 | |
| 30D POC · 14D VAH | 4,283.3–4,299.73 (-4.0%) | 5.2 | 5.4% | 2.4d | 3.0d ago · 72× | 17% ±17 | 67% ±21 | 5% ±9 | 29% ±20 | 20 | 3% ±3 | 16% ±16 | 41% ±36 | 65% ±54 | 4.6d | 3.19% | 1.25% | 120 → 3 | |
| LVN zone | 4,219.32–4,257.16 (-4.9%) | 6.4 | 0.6% | 2h | 1.3d ago · 47× | 9% ±10 | 62% ±22 | 19% ±18 | 19% ±18 | 18 | 0% ±1 | 9% ±10 | 15% ±21 | 18% ±33 | > 7d | 3.63% | 1.19% | 204 → 5 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,190.94 (-6.4%) | 8.3 | 3.0% | 23h | 1.3d ago · 31× | 3% ±6 | building | building | building | building | 2 | 1% ±1 | 3% ±6 | 8% ±17 | 21% ±40 | > 7d | — | — | 184 → 4 |
| 14D POC | 4,171.82 (-6.8%) | 8.9 | 3.6% | 1.2d | 3.0d ago · 85× | 7% ±9 | 52% ±21 | 4% ±8 | 44% ±21 | 22 | 1% ±1 | 7% ±8 | 16% ±22 | 35% ±42 | > 7d | 2.53% | 1.89% | 197 → 5 | |
| 7D VAL | 4,145.14 (-7.4%) | 9.7 | 2.7% | 18h | 2.9d ago · 85× | 5% ±7 | 61% ±21 | 17% ±17 | 22% ±18 | 20 | 0% ±1 | 5% ±7 | 11% ±17 | 30% ±37 | > 7d | 2.57% | 0.74% | 239 → 6 | |
| 14D VAL | 3,822 (-14.7%) | 19 | 0.1% | 9m | 2.9d ago · 59× | 0% ±2 | 62% ±30 | 15% ±22 | 23% ±26 | 10 | 0% ±1 | 0% ±2 | 1% ±6 | 8% ±21 | > 7d | 2.68% | 0.82% | 238 → 6 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | POC | short | 4,478.04 | 4,145.14 | 4,590.83 | stop | -1.16% |