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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-10-16 04:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,440 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0033), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.17 to 0.39) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 4,605.06–4,618.6 (+15.2%) | 12 | 1.6% | 16h | 3.2d ago · 70× | 4% ±6 | 42% ±21 | 8% ±11 | 50% ±21 | 21 | 1% ±1 | 4% ±6 | 18% ±20 | 54% ±40 | 6.5d | 2.08% | 2.13% | 257 → 6 | |
| 14D POC · 30D POC | 4,476.43 (+12.0%) | 9.7 | 6.3% | 3.6d | 3.0d ago · 79× | 5% ±12 | 25% ±19 | 12% ±15 | 63% ±22 | 19 | 1% ±2 | 5% ±11 | 11% ±31 | 72% ±62 | 4.7d | 1.56% | 1.87% | 78 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,247.06 (+6.3%) | 5.0 | 0.8% | 4h | 3.3d ago · 97× | 29% ±14 | 42% ±18 | 9% ±10 | 48% ±18 | 30 | 3% ±2 | 29% ±14 | 44% ±27 | 65% ±38 | 3.9d | 1.84% | 1.94% | 242 → 6 | |
| 7D POC | 4,125.3 (+3.2%) | 2.6 | 5.5% | 1.4d | 3.0d ago · 104× | 38% ±25 | 56% ±18 | 6% ±9 | 38% ±18 | 29 | 11% ±6 | 37% ±24 | 52% ±44 | 66% ±66 | 2.9d | 2.17% | 1.52% | 89 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 4,077–4,212.4 (+2.0%) | 1.6 | 2.6% | 8h | 9.5d ago · 82× | 45% ±24 | 58% ±20 | 8% ±11 | 35% ±19 | 23 | 20% ±8 | 44% ±24 | 58% ±40 | 59% ±68 | 1.5d | 2.13% | 1.85% | 104 → 2 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,009.3 (+0.3%) | 0.2 | 4.2% | 1.7d | 105.3d ago · 18× | building | building | building | building | building | 4 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 6 → 1 |
| at post · 3,997.15 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAL | 3,968.68 (-0.7%) | 0.6 | 3.2% | 14h | 2.8d ago · 59× | 70% ±34 | 56% ±27 | 13% ±18 | 31% ±25 | 13 | 47% ±15 | 70% ±32 | 77% ±48 | 79% | 6h | 2.39% | 1.28% | 45 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 3,812.94 (-4.6%) | 3.7 | 2.2% | 13h | 2.8d ago · 85× | 30% ±16 | 58% ±21 | 17% ±16 | 25% ±19 | 21 | 8% ±4 | 30% ±16 | 46% ±29 | 63% ±42 | 3.6d | 2.52% | 0.87% | 198 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | VAL | short | 3,997.15 | 3,826.51 | 4,476.43 | target | +2.16% |