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BTC · 1h · posted 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC
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BTC · these odds carry no usable signal 4,470 tests, 48% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.1% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0002 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0012), and their calibration slope is -0.18 (95% -0.39 to 0.13) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 81,292.87 (+5.3%) | 7.5 | 1.2% | 5h | 4.9d ago · 38× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 1% ±1 | 6% ±4 | 21% ±12 | 36% ±21 | > 7d | — | — | 858 → 20 |
| 7D VAH | 79,991.8 (+3.6%) | 5.1 | 2.4% | 24h | 1.5d ago · 89× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 2% ±1 | 19% ±6 | 45% ±13 | 62% ±20 | 3.7d | — | — | 978 → 23 |
| 14D VAH | 79,518.5 (+3.0%) | 4.3 | 4.3% | 1.6d | 1.3d ago · 67× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 4% ±2 | 28% ±8 | 53% ±16 | 67% ±23 | 2.6d | — | — | 682 → 16 |
| 7D POC · 30D POC | 78,517.67–78,620.06 (+1.7%) | 2.4 | 5.9% | 1.7d | 6.0d ago · 116× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 13% ±3 | 45% ±12 | 75% ±18 | 82% ±25 | 1.2d | — | — | 387 → 9 |
| 7D VAL | 77,678.55 (+0.6%) | 0.9 | 5.0% | 1.6d | 7.1d ago · 75× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 62% ±6 | 82% ±11 | 88% ±16 | 92% ±22 | 2h | — | — | 264 → 6 |
| 14D POC | 77,225.39 (+0.1%) | 0.1 | 6.4% | 2.5d | 6.0d ago · 81× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 79% ±5 | 87% ±10 | 96% ±11 | 97% ±13 | 1h | — | — | 257 → 6 |
| at post · 77,186.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAL | 76,879.85 (-0.4%) | 0.6 | 3.9% | 23h | 20.0d ago · 56× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 58% ±7 | 79% ±14 | 85% ±21 | 88% ±29 | 3h | — | — | 198 → 5 |
| 30D VAL | 76,343.22 (-1.1%) | 1.5 | 1.1% | 3h | 19.5d ago · 37× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 41% ±7 | 75% ±16 | 87% ±21 | 91% ±28 | 7h | — | — | 173 → 4 |
| LVN zone | 73,175.44–74,363.36 (-3.7%) | 5.2 | 0.3% | 47m | 7.1d ago · 46× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 3% ±2 | 20% ±11 | 43% ±23 | 55% ±34 | 5.0d | — | — | 332 → 8 |
| HVN zone | 62,880.17–63,474.13 (-17.8%) | 25 | 1.9% | 21h | 1.8d ago · 98× | building | building | building | building | building | 0 | 1% ±1 | 3% ±6 | 12% ±21 | 18% ±38 | > 7d | — | — | 169 → 4 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | POC | short | 77,186.4 | 76,879.85 | 79,518.5 | open | — |