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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-07-31 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,427.02 (+0.9%) | 2.9 | <0.1% | 10m | 7.8d ago · 49× | 46% ±69 | building | building | building | building | 6 | 13% ±18 | 53% ±69 | 93% | 93% | 1.0d | — | — | 13 → 1 |
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH | 6,393.48–6,402.32 (+0.4%) | 1.3 | 4.3% | 8h | 5.6d ago · 71× | building | 14% ±21 | 57% ±29 | 29% ±27 | 11 | 25% ±27 | 75% ±60 | 92% | 92% | 21h | 0.16% | 0.15% | 10 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL · 14D POC · 7D POC | 6,370.82–6,378.53 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 7.6% | 10h | 5.8d ago · 78× | building | building | building | building | building | 8 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 8 → 1 |
| at post · 6,368.02 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAL | 6,322.4 (-0.7%) | 2.3 | 2.8% | 2h | 7.6d ago · 58× | building | building | building | building | building | 4 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 2 → 1 |
| 30D POC | 6,266.34 (-1.6%) | 5.1 | 8.8% | 14h | 5.6d ago · 48× | 8% ±38 | building | building | building | building | 4 | 8% ±17 | 8% ±38 | 17% | 17% | > 7d | — | — | 10 → 1 |
| 30D VAL | 6,234.21 (-2.1%) | 6.7 | 4.8% | 5h | 6.8d ago · 41× | building | building | building | building | building | 1 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 0 → 0 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAH | short | 6,368.02 | 6,378.53 | 6,397.56 | target | +2.26% |
| 14d | POC | short | 6,368.02 | 6,322.4 | 6,402.32 | target | +2.26% |