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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2025-09-30 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,698.04–6,699.52 (+0.8%) | 2.9 | 1.7% | 2h | 6.0d ago · 66× | 37% ±39 | 28% ±19 | 41% ±21 | 30% ±19 | 22 | 11% ±10 | 36% ±39 | 66% ±66 | 92% | 1.9d | 0.44% | 0.31% | 38 → 1 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC · 7D VAH | 6,654.27–6,664.34 (+0.1%) | 0.5 | 7.6% | 12h | 5.8d ago · 78× | 83% ±25 | 27% ±18 | 39% ±20 | 34% ±19 | 24 | 63% ±13 | 83% ±24 | 93% ±29 | 97% | 1h | 0.28% | 0.32% | 53 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,645.97 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D VAL · 7D VAL | 6,625.43–6,626.82 (-0.3%) | 1.0 | 2.3% | 3h | 7.8d ago · 67× | 65% ±47 | 22% ±22 | 47% ±26 | 31% ±24 | 14 | 59% ±20 | 63% ±47 | 67% | 77% | 2h | 0.93% | 0.21% | 24 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 6,580.89–6,618.17 (-0.4%) | 1.5 | 4.0% | 5h | 6.0d ago · 62× | 49% ±40 | 33% ±22 | 38% ±22 | 29% ±21 | 18 | 33% ±16 | 47% ±40 | 59% ±68 | 72% | 1.1d | 0.59% | 0.22% | 35 → 1 | |
| 30D POC | 6,606.31 (-0.6%) | 2.2 | 8.9% | 12h | 5.8d ago · 48× | 30% ±52 | 41% ±26 | 24% ±22 | 35% ±25 | 14 | 14% ±15 | 28% ±51 | 33% | 39% | > 7d | 0.67% | 0.21% | 20 → 1 | |
| LVN zone | 6,547–6,570.72 (-1.1%) | 4.1 | 0.7% | 58m | 1.8d ago · 55× | 15% ±29 | 47% ±28 | 27% ±25 | 27% ±25 | 12 | 7% ±8 | 15% ±26 | 30% ±63 | 49% | > 7d | 0.73% | 0.07% | 40 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,533.44 (-1.7%) | 6.2 | 1.8% | 2h | 7.0d ago · 41× | 5% ±16 | building | building | building | building | 3 | 2% ±5 | 5% ±16 | 5% ±29 | 5% | > 7d | — | — | 42 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAH | short | 6,645.97 | 6,658.39 | 6,671.34 | target | -0.88% |
| 14d | POC | short | 6,645.97 | 6,626.82 | 6,698.04 | stop | -0.88% |