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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-05 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,945.77 (+0.5%) | 1.7 | 1.1% | 14m | 5.4d ago · 66× | 36% ±26 | 28% ±14 | 46% ±15 | 26% ±14 | 40 | 19% ±9 | 36% ±26 | 62% ±48 | 88% ±46 | 2.4d | 0.59% | 0.17% | 77 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH | 6,913.71 (+0.0%) | 0.0 | 4.5% | 3h | 5.3d ago · 71× | 88% ±17 | 17% ±11 | 56% ±14 | 27% ±12 | 49 | 73% ±10 | 88% ±17 | 93% ±23 | 96% ±26 | 1h | 0.35% | 0.12% | 82 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,912.88 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 6,902.53–6,911.04 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 4.5% | 6h | 5.4d ago · 75× | 75% ±23 | 24% ±13 | 41% ±15 | 34% ±14 | 43 | 61% ±10 | 75% ±23 | 87% ±29 | 91% ±40 | 2h | 0.54% | 0.17% | 83 → 2 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,857.39 (-0.8%) | 2.9 | 5.7% | 8h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 19% ±19 | 23% ±13 | 50% ±15 | 27% ±14 | 41 | 13% ±7 | 19% ±19 | 36% ±42 | 64% ±66 | 5.0d | 0.83% | 0.27% | 93 → 2 | |
| 30D POC | 6,841.58 (-1.0%) | 3.7 | 9.8% | 11h | 5.3d ago · 48× | 21% ±27 | 32% ±16 | 35% ±17 | 32% ±16 | 31 | 4% ±5 | 21% ±27 | 40% ±56 | 58% | 6.0d | 0.70% | 0.23% | 55 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL · 30D VAL | 6,806.85 (-1.5%) | 5.6 | 4.5% | 4h | 6.5d ago · 58× | 8% ±13 | 25% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 38% ±18 | 29 | 3% ±3 | 8% ±13 | 26% ±39 | 35% ±66 | > 7d | 1.04% | 0.44% | 95 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | long | 6,912.88 | 6,902.53 | 6,847.25 | target | +0.28% |
| 14d | POC | long | 6,912.88 | 6,945.77 | 6,806.85 | expired | +0.28% |