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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-05 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,945.77 (+0.5%) | 1.9 | 1.0% | 14m | 5.4d ago · 66× | 31% ±25 | 28% ±14 | 46% ±15 | 26% ±14 | 40 | 15% ±8 | 31% ±25 | 57% ±49 | 85% ±50 | 2.5d | 0.59% | 0.17% | 76 → 2 | |
| 14D POC · 7D VAH | 6,911.04–6,920.38 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 5.5% | 8h | 5.2d ago · 71× | 78% ±19 | 24% ±12 | 48% ±14 | 29% ±13 | 49 | 62% ±9 | 78% ±19 | 89% ±25 | 94% ±26 | 1h | 0.38% | 0.13% | 110 → 3 | |
| at post · 6,909.91 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D POC | 6,902.61 (-0.1%) | 0.4 | 5.5% | 14h | 7.4d ago · 75× | 75% ±25 | 26% ±13 | 39% ±15 | 35% ±14 | 43 | 57% ±11 | 75% ±23 | 88% ±31 | 94% ±34 | 2h | 0.50% | 0.23% | 75 → 2 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,876.31 (-0.5%) | 1.8 | 5.3% | 10h | 7.2d ago · 58× | 33% ±31 | 25% ±16 | 31% ±17 | 44% ±18 | 29 | 17% ±10 | 33% ±31 | 50% ±57 | 71% | 2.8d | 0.79% | 0.48% | 52 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,858.9 (-0.7%) | 2.7 | 5.3% | 8h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 25% ±23 | 23% ±13 | 50% ±15 | 27% ±14 | 41 | 15% ±7 | 25% ±22 | 40% ±43 | 68% ±65 | 4.1d | 0.83% | 0.27% | 87 → 2 | |
| 30D POC | 6,841.58 (-1.0%) | 3.6 | 9.5% | 11h | 5.2d ago · 48× | 20% ±26 | 32% ±16 | 35% ±17 | 32% ±16 | 31 | 4% ±5 | 20% ±26 | 40% ±55 | 58% | 6.0d | 0.70% | 0.23% | 54 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,806.85 (-1.5%) | 5.4 | 4.4% | 4h | 6.4d ago · 41× | 7% ±13 | 26% ±19 | 43% ±22 | 30% ±20 | 20 | 4% ±4 | 7% ±13 | 20% ±35 | 28% ±62 | > 7d | 1.39% | 0.39% | 98 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | POC | short | 6,909.91 | 6,876.31 | 6,945.77 | expired | -0.29% |