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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-14 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D POC · 7D VAH · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,977.2–6,986.33 (+0.9%) | 3.6 | 4.5% | 5h | 5.2d ago · 78× | 16% ±17 | 24% ±11 | 49% ±13 | 28% ±12 | 54 | 3% ±3 | 16% ±17 | 35% ±38 | 67% ±53 | 4.7d | 0.45% | 0.21% | 108 → 3 | |
| 14D POC · 30D POC | 6,946.64–6,951.4 (+0.5%) | 1.9 | 4.4% | 7h | 5.4d ago · 51× | 33% ±33 | 28% ±16 | 37% ±17 | 35% ±17 | 30 | 16% ±10 | 33% ±33 | 60% ±56 | 87% | 2.9d | 0.41% | 0.27% | 49 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,931.52 (+0.3%) | 1.1 | 6.1% | 10h | 6.3d ago · 49× | 73% ±33 | 26% ±19 | 39% ±21 | 35% ±21 | 20 | 44% ±16 | 73% ±33 | 93% ±36 | 98% | 18h | 0.50% | 0.34% | 39 → 1 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,913.42 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 7.3% | 10h | 6.4d ago · 44× | 86% ±28 | 21% ±17 | 50% ±21 | 29% ±19 | 21 | 64% ±16 | 86% ±28 | 94% ±32 | 97% | 1h | 0.62% | 0.42% | 34 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,912.24 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 6,776.74 (-2.0%) | 7.4 | 2.0% | 3h | 6.4d ago · 41× | 5% ±9 | 26% ±19 | 43% ±22 | 30% ±20 | 20 | 3% ±3 | 5% ±9 | 13% ±23 | 19% ±44 | > 7d | 1.39% | 0.39% | 145 → 3 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 6,912.24 | 6,860.91 | 6,977.2 | expired | -0.74% |
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,912.24 | 6,910.99 | 6,946.64 | target | -0.74% |
| 30d | POC | short | 6,912.24 | 6,776.74 | 6,986.33 | expired | -0.74% |