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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-14 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 7D POC · 7D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,968.51–6,986.33 (+1.1%) | 3.7 | 4.9% | 6h | 5.5d ago · 78× | 14% ±16 | 24% ±11 | 48% ±13 | 27% ±12 | 54 | 3% ±3 | 14% ±16 | 32% ±37 | 64% ±54 | 5.2d | 0.47% | 0.20% | 108 → 3 | |
| 30D POC | 6,951.4 (+0.8%) | 2.8 | 4.8% | 8h | 5.7d ago · 46× | 16% ±27 | 22% ±15 | 41% ±18 | 38% ±18 | 29 | 7% ±7 | 15% ±27 | 42% ±68 | 78% | 3.9d | 0.41% | 0.37% | 44 → 1 | |
| 14D POC · 7D VAL | 6,914.23–6,923.96 (+0.3%) | 0.9 | 8.1% | 11h | 5.7d ago · 51× | 70% ±25 | 30% ±16 | 36% ±17 | 34% ±17 | 30 | 45% ±11 | 69% ±25 | 82% ±37 | 93% ±36 | 10h | 0.45% | 0.23% | 76 → 2 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,898.84 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 8.5% | 12h | 6.6d ago · 44× | 87% ±27 | 21% ±17 | 50% ±21 | 29% ±19 | 21 | 67% ±15 | 87% ±27 | 95% ±31 | 97% | 1h | 0.62% | 0.42% | 37 → 1 | |
| at post · 6,895.23 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL | 6,846.6 (-0.7%) | 2.4 | 2.8% | 2h | 6.7d ago · 41× | 26% ±32 | 26% ±19 | 43% ±22 | 30% ±20 | 20 | 19% ±12 | 26% ±32 | 40% ±68 | 51% | 6.0d | 1.39% | 0.39% | 41 → 1 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAL | short | 6,895.23 | 6,825.56 | 6,914.23 | stop | -1.08% |