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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-01-15 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 6,986.33 (+0.3%) | 1.1 | 2.5% | 53m | 7.7d ago · 49× | 67% ±26 | 24% ±13 | 48% ±16 | 29% ±14 | 39 | 44% ±11 | 67% ±26 | 87% ±33 | 97% ±22 | 18h | 0.47% | 0.22% | 77 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH | 6,965.21–6,965.27 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 5.0% | 7h | 5.5d ago · 71× | 86% ±17 | 23% ±11 | 51% ±13 | 25% ±12 | 54 | 67% ±10 | 86% ±17 | 92% ±24 | 95% ±31 | 1h | 0.47% | 0.14% | 93 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,963.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D POC | 6,951.4 (-0.2%) | 0.6 | 4.9% | 8h | 5.5d ago · 48× | 70% ±28 | 31% ±16 | 34% ±16 | 34% ±16 | 32 | 51% ±12 | 71% ±27 | 82% ±38 | 83% ±52 | 4h | 0.66% | 0.24% | 63 → 2 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC | 6,914.23–6,918.43 (-0.6%) | 2.2 | 8.3% | 11h | 5.6d ago · 75× | 26% ±24 | 27% ±13 | 42% ±14 | 31% ±13 | 47 | 11% ±7 | 27% ±24 | 56% ±49 | 72% ±62 | 2.1d | 0.54% | 0.18% | 78 → 2 | |
| 14D VAL | 6,897.22 (-1.0%) | 3.2 | 9.0% | 11h | 7.4d ago · 58× | 18% ±20 | 27% ±16 | 30% ±16 | 42% ±18 | 30 | 4% ±4 | 20% ±20 | 39% ±43 | 52% ±69 | 5.9d | 0.82% | 0.46% | 88 → 2 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,885.74 (-1.1%) | 3.8 | 3.8% | 4h | 7.4d ago · 67× | 13% ±14 | 24% ±13 | 48% ±15 | 28% ±13 | 43 | 7% ±4 | 13% ±14 | 33% ±35 | 57% ±56 | 5.9d | 0.80% | 0.27% | 129 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,846.6 (-1.7%) | 5.7 | 2.5% | 2h | 6.7d ago · 41× | 5% ±10 | 26% ±19 | 43% ±22 | 30% ±20 | 20 | 3% ±3 | 5% ±10 | 17% ±30 | 21% ±46 | > 7d | 1.39% | 0.39% | 114 → 3 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | POC | long | 6,963.6 | 6,986.33 | 6,846.6 | expired | -0.33% |