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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-02-04 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D POC · 7D POC · 14D POC · 30D VAH · 7D VAH · 14D VAH | 6,977.76–6,992.41 (+0.8%) | 1.9 | 16.4% | 23h | 5.5d ago · 78× | 31% ±21 | 27% ±11 | 46% ±13 | 28% ±12 | 58 | 11% ±6 | 30% ±20 | 55% ±37 | 84% ±42 | 2.8d | 0.47% | 0.21% | 117 → 3 | |
| HVN zone | 6,942.58–6,959.63 (+0.3%) | 0.7 | 14.0% | 21h | 5.7d ago · 65× | 74% ±26 | 25% ±16 | 25% ±16 | 50% ±18 | 29 | 51% ±12 | 74% ±25 | 87% ±33 | 94% ±32 | 3h | 0.44% | 0.41% | 71 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,921.18 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL · 30D VAL | 6,912.72–6,921.01 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 17.0% | 1.0d | 6.7d ago · 67× | 67% ±25 | 25% ±13 | 41% ±14 | 33% ±14 | 46 | 55% ±11 | 68% ±25 | 74% ±43 | 84% ±51 | 11h | 0.85% | 0.39% | 77 → 2 | |
| LVN zone | 6,803.98–6,846.62 (-1.1%) | 2.5 | 1.2% | 2h | 1.4d ago · 55× | 32% ±28 | 34% ±16 | 20% ±14 | 46% ±17 | 32 | 20% ±9 | 31% ±26 | 60% ±48 | 84% ±51 | 2.1d | 0.60% | 0.38% | 69 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | long | 6,921.18 | 6,978.01 | 6,908.28 | stop | -1.94% |
| 14d | VAL | long | 6,921.18 | 6,979.59 | 6,899.28 | stop | -1.94% |
| 30d | VAL | long | 6,921.18 | 6,977.76 | 6,899.29 | stop | -1.94% |