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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-02-18 20:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,967 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.68 to 0.15) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D POC · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,978.47–6,988.67 (+1.4%) | 3.2 | 12.7% | 19h | 5.4d ago · 66× | 15% ±15 | 30% ±13 | 45% ±14 | 25% ±12 | 50 | 3% ±3 | 15% ±15 | 35% ±33 | 72% ±51 | 4.5d | 0.53% | 0.20% | 140 → 3 | |
| 14D POC | 6,950.97 (+1.0%) | 2.3 | 10.2% | 16h | 5.4d ago · 51× | 24% ±22 | 34% ±15 | 34% ±15 | 32% ±15 | 38 | 5% ±5 | 24% ±22 | 47% ±44 | 88% ±44 | 3.8d | 0.42% | 0.17% | 84 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 6,904.76–6,927.44 (+0.4%) | 0.8 | 9.6% | 13h | 5.4d ago · 65× | 69% ±23 | 27% ±15 | 24% ±14 | 49% ±17 | 34 | 49% ±10 | 70% ±23 | 84% ±32 | 93% ±34 | 5h | 0.41% | 0.42% | 90 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH | 6,880.29 (+0.0%) | 0.0 | 7.1% | 8h | 5.2d ago · 71× | 86% ±17 | 22% ±11 | 52% ±13 | 25% ±11 | 60 | 67% ±9 | 86% ±16 | 93% ±20 | 95% ±24 | 1h | 0.37% | 0.16% | 105 → 3 | |
| at post · 6,879.66 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D VAL · 7D POC · 14D VAL | 6,851.79–6,873.02 (-0.1%) | 0.2 | 8.3% | 10h | 6.4d ago · 75× | 58% ±23 | 26% ±12 | 36% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 52 | 45% ±10 | 59% ±23 | 70% ±37 | 84% ±51 | 15h | 0.72% | 0.36% | 103 → 2 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,826.91 (-0.8%) | 1.7 | 4.7% | 8h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 49% ±26 | 21% ±11 | 46% ±14 | 33% ±13 | 49 | 30% ±10 | 48% ±26 | 57% ±43 | 77% ±58 | 1.0d | 0.67% | 0.45% | 85 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | POC | long | 6,879.66 | 6,880.29 | 6,826.91 | expired | -0.26% |
| 30d | VAL | long | 6,879.66 | 6,978.47 | 6,852.2 | stop | -0.26% |