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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-02-20 14:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D POC · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,978.47–6,988.67 (+1.4%) | 3.1 | 12.6% | 19h | 5.8d ago · 66× | 15% ±14 | 30% ±13 | 45% ±14 | 25% ±12 | 50 | 3% ±3 | 15% ±14 | 35% ±33 | 72% ±51 | 4.6d | 0.53% | 0.20% | 145 → 3 | |
| 14D POC | 6,950.97 (+1.0%) | 2.2 | 10.1% | 15h | 5.9d ago · 51× | 24% ±23 | 34% ±15 | 34% ±15 | 32% ±15 | 38 | 7% ±5 | 24% ±22 | 47% ±44 | 86% ±48 | 3.1d | 0.42% | 0.17% | 87 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 6,904.76–6,927.44 (+0.3%) | 0.7 | 9.4% | 13h | 5.9d ago · 65× | 72% ±23 | 26% ±15 | 26% ±15 | 47% ±17 | 35 | 49% ±10 | 73% ±22 | 87% ±30 | 94% ±32 | 5h | 0.44% | 0.42% | 88 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,884.42 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAH · 30D VAL · 14D VAL · 7D POC | 6,844.7–6,876.28 (-0.1%) | 0.3 | 7.9% | 10h | 5.8d ago · 75× | 56% ±24 | 24% ±12 | 39% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 53 | 41% ±9 | 57% ±24 | 72% ±36 | 85% ±49 | 19h | 0.61% | 0.34% | 104 → 2 | |
| 7D VAL | 6,826.56 (-0.8%) | 1.9 | 4.3% | 6h | 7.6d ago · 67× | 39% ±26 | 21% ±11 | 46% ±14 | 33% ±13 | 49 | 23% ±9 | 41% ±26 | 49% ±44 | 72% ±62 | 3.1d | 0.67% | 0.45% | 86 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAH | long | 6,884.42 | 6,934.14 | 6,844.7 | expired | +0.37% |
| 14d | VAL | long | 6,884.42 | 6,950.97 | 6,836.36 | expired | +0.37% |
| 30d | VAL | long | 6,884.42 | 6,978.47 | 6,852.2 | expired | +0.37% |