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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,968 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0016), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.70 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVN zone | 6,942.53–6,948.19 (+1.1%) | 2.0 | 9.4% | 13h | 5.5d ago · 65× | 46% ±29 | 27% ±13 | 27% ±13 | 47% ±15 | 42 | 13% ±8 | 45% ±28 | 67% ±46 | 87% ±46 | 1.9d | 0.53% | 0.42% | 70 → 2 | |
| 7D VAH · 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 6,902.25–6,919.88 (+0.5%) | 0.9 | 12.8% | 17h | 5.2d ago · 71× | 58% ±18 | 28% ±11 | 49% ±12 | 24% ±10 | 67 | 36% ±7 | 58% ±18 | 75% ±27 | 88% ±32 | 23h | 0.51% | 0.17% | 176 → 4 | |
| 7D POC · 30D POC · 14D POC | 6,875.02–6,876.25 (+0.1%) | 0.2 | 18.6% | 1.1d | 5.5d ago · 78× | 79% ±21 | 30% ±12 | 38% ±13 | 32% ±12 | 55 | 60% ±10 | 79% ±21 | 90% ±26 | 95% ±29 | 1h | 0.47% | 0.29% | 88 → 2 | |
| at post · 6,868.95 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 6,841.15–6,845.41 (-0.3%) | 0.6 | 10.8% | 17h | 7.2d ago · 67× | 65% ±21 | 26% ±12 | 39% ±13 | 34% ±13 | 53 | 46% ±9 | 65% ±21 | 74% ±33 | 88% ±36 | 12h | 0.69% | 0.40% | 118 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 6,815.15 (-0.8%) | 1.5 | 4.7% | 7h | 6.5d ago · 41× | 47% ±28 | 22% ±14 | 44% ±17 | 33% ±16 | 33 | 30% ±11 | 47% ±28 | 65% ±47 | 76% ±59 | 1.8d | 0.88% | 0.53% | 72 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | POC | short | 6,868.95 | 6,845.41 | 6,902.25 | target | +0.57% |
| 14d | POC | short | 6,868.95 | 6,841.15 | 6,911.35 | target | +0.57% |
| 30d | POC | short | 6,868.95 | 6,815.15 | 6,919.88 | target | +0.57% |