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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-08-14 16:30 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,816.7 (+0.5%) | 2.3 | <0.1% | 11m | 7.1d ago · 49× | 19% ±14 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 6% ±3 | 19% ±14 | 45% ±31 | 64% ±47 | 4.0d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 178 → 4 | |
| 14D VAH | 7,782.61 (+0.0%) | 0.2 | 1.8% | 3h | 5.0d ago · 66× | 78% ±16 | 33% ±10 | 40% ±11 | 28% ±10 | 77 | 61% ±8 | 78% ±16 | 86% ±24 | 91% ±33 | 2h | 0.44% | 0.19% | 146 → 3 | |
| at post · 7,779.09 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAH | 7,770.95 (-0.1%) | 0.5 | 0.9% | 1h | 5.0d ago · 52× | 67% ±24 | 21% ±11 | 43% ±13 | 36% ±13 | 55 | 50% ±10 | 67% ±24 | 85% ±31 | 89% ±43 | 4h | 0.39% | 0.26% | 92 → 2 | |
| HVN zone | 7,716.14–7,761.39 (-0.2%) | 1.1 | 2.1% | 4h | 5.0d ago · 62× | 68% ±16 | 27% ±9 | 27% ±9 | 46% ±11 | 86 | 47% ±7 | 68% ±16 | 81% ±23 | 87% ±30 | 18h | 0.45% | 0.46% | 194 → 5 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 30D POC | 7,748.82–7,750.57 (-0.4%) | 1.7 | 6.9% | 12h | 4.8d ago · 75× | 40% ±21 | 27% ±9 | 36% ±10 | 37% ±10 | 86 | 17% ±7 | 40% ±20 | 67% ±35 | 80% ±45 | 2.0d | 0.50% | 0.34% | 130 → 3 | |
| 7D VAL | 7,717.25 (-0.8%) | 3.7 | 2.5% | 3h | 6.8d ago · 67× | 13% ±11 | 23% ±9 | 38% ±11 | 39% ±11 | 79 | 5% ±3 | 13% ±10 | 34% ±26 | 56% ±40 | 5.9d | 0.57% | 0.50% | 241 → 6 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,697.37 (-1.1%) | 4.9 | 0.7% | 45m | 6.8d ago · 58× | 13% ±12 | 25% ±11 | 35% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 60 | 1% ±1 | 13% ±11 | 34% ±28 | 45% ±44 | > 7d | 0.63% | 0.45% | 195 → 5 | |
| LVN zone | 7,610.56–7,691.01 (-1.1%) | 5.3 | 0.2% | 13m | 13.9d ago · 54× | 17% ±16 | 28% ±11 | 28% ±11 | 43% ±12 | 64 | 1% ±2 | 16% ±15 | 41% ±36 | 50% ±57 | > 7d | 0.51% | 0.38% | 133 → 3 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,444.64 (-4.3%) | 20 | 3.4% | 5h | 6.1d ago · 41× | 3% ±6 | 22% ±12 | 42% ±14 | 36% ±14 | 47 | 2% ±2 | 3% ±6 | 9% ±18 | 14% ±34 | > 7d | 0.77% | 0.55% | 175 → 4 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | VAH | short | 7,779.09 | 7,750.22 | 7,797.95 | expired | -0.09% |