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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,697.64 (+0.8%) | 2.7 | 2.6% | 4h | 6.6d ago · 49× | 15% ±11 | 28% ±12 | 41% ±13 | 31% ±12 | 58 | 4% ±3 | 15% ±11 | 37% ±26 | 56% ±43 | 5.9d | 0.45% | 0.23% | 225 → 5 | |
| 14D VAH · 30D POC | 7,667.77–7,672.59 (+0.4%) | 1.4 | 12.7% | 22h | 4.5d ago · 66× | 43% ±17 | 30% ±10 | 40% ±11 | 30% ±10 | 81 | 24% ±6 | 43% ±17 | 61% ±29 | 76% ±37 | 1.8d | 0.45% | 0.21% | 199 → 5 | |
| HVN zone | 7,652.81–7,687.09 (+0.2%) | 0.7 | 5.6% | 9h | 4.6d ago · 65× | 68% ±16 | 31% ±10 | 32% ±10 | 37% ±11 | 81 | 49% ±7 | 68% ±16 | 80% ±24 | 86% ±30 | 5h | 0.54% | 0.36% | 201 → 5 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,648.25 (+0.1%) | 0.5 | 6.0% | 9h | 4.4d ago · 71× | 71% ±15 | 25% ±9 | 43% ±10 | 33% ±9 | 98 | 55% ±7 | 72% ±15 | 82% ±22 | 88% ±29 | 2h | 0.37% | 0.20% | 221 → 5 | |
| at post · 7,637.76 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 7,632.17–7,637.46 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 10.5% | 13h | 4.5d ago · 75× | 79% ±16 | 25% ±9 | 37% ±10 | 38% ±10 | 93 | 64% ±8 | 80% ±16 | 90% ±20 | 94% ±23 | 2h | 0.45% | 0.30% | 153 → 4 | |
| 30D VAL · 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 7,570.8–7,584.25 (-0.7%) | 2.4 | 6.0% | 7h | 5.6d ago · 67× | 27% ±14 | 22% ±9 | 37% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 85 | 9% ±4 | 27% ±14 | 46% ±27 | 65% ±38 | 4.1d | 0.60% | 0.50% | 233 → 6 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.