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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-29 17:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH · 14D VAH | 7,776.7–7,779.45 (+1.4%) | 4.5 | 2.8% | 3h | 4.8d ago · 66× | 8% ±8 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 29% ±10 | 85 | 1% ±1 | 8% ±8 | 20% ±19 | 47% ±37 | > 7d | 0.43% | 0.20% | 279 → 7 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,723.92 (+0.7%) | 2.3 | 3.9% | 7h | 4.7d ago · 71× | 25% ±14 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 7% ±4 | 25% ±14 | 43% ±28 | 67% ±41 | 4.2d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 213 → 5 | |
| HVN zone | 7,705.35–7,719.07 (+0.5%) | 1.5 | 7.5% | 11h | 4.9d ago · 65× | 49% ±17 | 31% ±10 | 33% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 85 | 24% ±6 | 49% ±17 | 64% ±28 | 77% ±37 | 1.1d | 0.54% | 0.35% | 206 → 5 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC | 7,703.98–7,704.44 (+0.5%) | 1.5 | 7.1% | 10h | 4.9d ago · 78× | 43% ±19 | 31% ±9 | 34% ±10 | 35% ±10 | 92 | 22% ±6 | 43% ±19 | 57% ±32 | 78% ±41 | 2.4d | 0.44% | 0.31% | 155 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,668.79 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30D POC · 7D VAL | 7,664.86–7,668.31 (-0.0%) | 0.0 | 9.6% | 15h | 4.7d ago · 67× | 81% ±16 | 25% ±9 | 34% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 87 | 61% ±8 | 82% ±15 | 88% ±23 | 91% ±32 | 1h | 0.54% | 0.50% | 146 → 3 | |
| 14D VAL · 30D VAL | 7,636.75–7,644.98 (-0.3%) | 1.0 | 7.3% | 10h | 5.9d ago · 58× | 56% ±18 | 23% ±10 | 39% ±12 | 39% ±12 | 67 | 34% ±7 | 56% ±18 | 68% ±29 | 82% ±38 | 22h | 0.61% | 0.49% | 172 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,625.77–7,644.98 (-0.3%) | 1.0 | 7.3% | 10h | 4.8d ago · 62× | 67% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 93 | 47% ±6 | 67% ±15 | 81% ±21 | 88% ±28 | 18h | 0.44% | 0.46% | 228 → 5 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.