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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-29 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 7,776.7 (+1.4%) | 5.0 | 2.4% | 3h | 4.5d ago · 66× | 6% ±7 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 29% ±10 | 85 | 1% ±1 | 6% ±7 | 16% ±19 | 42% ±40 | > 7d | 0.43% | 0.20% | 270 → 6 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,721.84 (+0.7%) | 2.4 | 3.7% | 7h | 4.3d ago · 71× | 23% ±13 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 6% ±3 | 22% ±13 | 40% ±28 | 64% ±42 | 5.1d | 0.37% | 0.20% | 223 → 5 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC | 7,703.95–7,703.98 (+0.4%) | 1.6 | 6.2% | 9h | 4.5d ago · 78× | 40% ±19 | 31% ±9 | 34% ±10 | 35% ±10 | 92 | 18% ±6 | 40% ±19 | 55% ±33 | 77% ±41 | 2.5d | 0.45% | 0.31% | 153 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,702.61–7,719.07 (+0.4%) | 1.5 | 5.8% | 9h | 4.5d ago · 65× | 50% ±17 | 30% ±10 | 34% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 86 | 25% ±6 | 50% ±17 | 65% ±27 | 77% ±37 | 1.0d | 0.54% | 0.34% | 207 → 5 | |
| at post · 7,670.84 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAL · 30D POC | 7,668.31–7,668.72 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 9.7% | 15h | 4.3d ago · 67× | 81% ±16 | 25% ±9 | 34% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 87 | 63% ±8 | 82% ±16 | 88% ±23 | 91% ±32 | 1h | 0.54% | 0.50% | 137 → 3 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,655.96 (-0.2%) | 0.7 | 3.2% | 6h | 6.3d ago · 58× | 62% ±19 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 40% ±8 | 62% ±19 | 70% ±30 | 86% ±33 | 18h | 0.55% | 0.45% | 155 → 4 | |
| HVN zone | 7,625.77–7,644.98 (-0.3%) | 1.2 | 6.4% | 9h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 61% ±16 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 93 | 39% ±7 | 60% ±16 | 76% ±24 | 86% ±30 | 21h | 0.44% | 0.46% | 211 → 5 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,636.75 (-0.4%) | 1.6 | 9.5% | 14h | 5.5d ago · 41× | 47% ±23 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 23% ±8 | 47% ±24 | 65% ±38 | 79% ±56 | 1.8d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 104 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.