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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-30 13:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 7,776.7 (+0.9%) | 3.0 | 2.6% | 3h | 4.5d ago · 66× | 15% ±11 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 29% ±10 | 85 | 3% ±2 | 15% ±11 | 34% ±25 | 58% ±39 | 5.6d | 0.43% | 0.20% | 251 → 6 | |
| 7D VAH | 7,721.53 (+0.2%) | 0.6 | 4.1% | 8h | 4.4d ago · 71× | 69% ±14 | 24% ±8 | 44% ±10 | 32% ±9 | 100 | 51% ±6 | 69% ±14 | 82% ±21 | 88% ±26 | 4h | 0.37% | 0.20% | 239 → 6 | |
| at post · 7,707.55 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D POC · 14D POC | 7,703.98–7,704.29 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 6.8% | 11h | 4.5d ago · 75× | 80% ±16 | 25% ±9 | 38% ±10 | 37% ±10 | 94 | 64% ±8 | 80% ±16 | 90% ±21 | 93% ±28 | 1h | 0.45% | 0.31% | 143 → 3 | |
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,694.38 (-0.2%) | 0.6 | 6.2% | 9h | 4.5d ago · 62× | 73% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 93 | 54% ±7 | 72% ±15 | 85% ±21 | 90% ±26 | 2h | 0.44% | 0.46% | 199 → 5 | |
| 7D VAL · 30D POC | 7,668.31–7,670.3 (-0.5%) | 1.6 | 10.5% | 16h | 4.4d ago · 67× | 48% ±17 | 25% ±9 | 34% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 87 | 24% ±6 | 49% ±17 | 63% ±29 | 78% ±37 | 1.3d | 0.54% | 0.50% | 192 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,655.96 (-0.7%) | 2.2 | 3.6% | 6h | 6.3d ago · 58× | 28% ±17 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 10% ±5 | 28% ±17 | 46% ±33 | 64% ±47 | 3.9d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 164 → 4 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,636.75 (-0.9%) | 3.1 | 10.3% | 15h | 5.6d ago · 41× | 23% ±17 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 7% ±4 | 23% ±16 | 41% ±34 | 59% ±48 | 4.1d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 152 → 4 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.