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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-30 17:30 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14D VAH · 30D VAH | 7,771.21–7,776.7 (+1.0%) | 3.3 | 5.0% | 6h | 4.8d ago · 66× | 12% ±10 | 31% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 29% ±10 | 85 | 2% ±2 | 12% ±10 | 29% ±24 | 54% ±40 | 6.4d | 0.43% | 0.20% | 259 → 6 | |
| 14D POC · 7D POC · 30D POC · 7D VAH | 7,703.98–7,714.63 (+0.1%) | 0.3 | 7.6% | 12h | 4.6d ago · 78× | 70% ±14 | 28% ±9 | 38% ±10 | 34% ±9 | 100 | 52% ±6 | 70% ±13 | 81% ±20 | 88% ±26 | 11h | 0.42% | 0.27% | 261 → 6 | |
| HVN zone | 7,702.61–7,719.07 (+0.1%) | 0.3 | 7.2% | 11h | 4.8d ago · 65× | 74% ±16 | 30% ±10 | 34% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 86 | 57% ±8 | 73% ±16 | 84% ±24 | 89% ±31 | 2h | 0.54% | 0.34% | 166 → 4 | |
| at post · 7,696.85 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,680.65 (-0.2%) | 0.7 | 6.5% | 8h | 4.8d ago · 62× | 69% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 93 | 51% ±7 | 69% ±15 | 83% ±21 | 89% ±27 | 3h | 0.44% | 0.46% | 214 → 5 | |
| 7D VAL | 7,667.34 (-0.4%) | 1.3 | 9.1% | 13h | 6.6d ago · 67× | 58% ±17 | 23% ±9 | 35% ±10 | 42% ±10 | 88 | 33% ±7 | 58% ±17 | 70% ±27 | 85% ±31 | 22h | 0.56% | 0.50% | 190 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,655.96 (-0.5%) | 1.8 | 3.4% | 6h | 6.6d ago · 58× | 37% ±19 | 23% ±10 | 37% ±12 | 40% ±12 | 67 | 16% ±6 | 36% ±19 | 54% ±35 | 74% ±43 | 2.8d | 0.55% | 0.45% | 150 → 4 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,636.75 (-0.8%) | 2.7 | 9.9% | 14h | 5.8d ago · 41× | 28% ±19 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 9% ±5 | 28% ±18 | 47% ±35 | 62% ±55 | 3.8d | 0.69% | 0.55% | 135 → 3 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.