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S&P 500 · 1h · posted 2026-09-30 20:00 UTC
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S&P 500 · these odds carry no usable signal 1,966 tests, 28% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.0% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0000 of 0.200, 95% 0.0000 to 0.0015), and their calibration slope is -0.28 (95% -0.71 to 0.16) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 7,776.7 (+1.6%) | 5.8 | 2.4% | 3h | 6.6d ago · 49× | 5% ±6 | 30% ±11 | 41% ±12 | 30% ±11 | 61 | 1% ±1 | 5% ±6 | 11% ±16 | 35% ±38 | > 7d | 0.47% | 0.23% | 255 → 6 | |
| 14D VAH | 7,765.02 (+1.5%) | 5.2 | 4.8% | 6h | 4.6d ago · 66× | 6% ±7 | 32% ±10 | 40% ±10 | 28% ±10 | 85 | 1% ±1 | 6% ±7 | 17% ±20 | 44% ±40 | > 7d | 0.40% | 0.19% | 237 → 6 | |
| 7D POC · 14D POC · 7D VAH | 7,703.31–7,713.87 (+0.7%) | 2.4 | 7.1% | 11h | 4.4d ago · 78× | 22% ±13 | 28% ±9 | 38% ±9 | 34% ±9 | 100 | 5% ±3 | 22% ±13 | 38% ±26 | 66% ±42 | 4.9d | 0.42% | 0.27% | 226 → 5 | |
| 7D VAL · 30D POC | 7,664.61–7,668.31 (+0.2%) | 0.6 | 8.2% | 12h | 4.6d ago · 49× | 69% ±19 | 29% ±12 | 37% ±13 | 34% ±13 | 54 | 48% ±9 | 68% ±19 | 83% ±28 | 92% ±31 | 12h | 0.47% | 0.31% | 132 → 3 | |
| HVN zone | 7,661.45–7,680.65 (+0.1%) | 0.5 | 6.4% | 9h | 4.6d ago · 65× | 71% ±16 | 30% ±10 | 34% ±10 | 36% ±10 | 86 | 53% ±7 | 71% ±16 | 82% ±24 | 87% ±33 | 3h | 0.54% | 0.34% | 184 → 4 | |
| 14D VAL | 7,653.44 (+0.0%) | 0.1 | 3.1% | 5h | 5.6d ago · 44× | 86% ±19 | 28% ±12 | 40% ±14 | 32% ±13 | 50 | 68% ±11 | 86% ±19 | 96% ±19 | 99% ±16 | 1h | 0.56% | 0.43% | 72 → 2 | |
| at post · 7,651.54 | |||||||||||||||||||
| HVN zone | 7,625.77–7,644.98 (-0.1%) | 0.3 | 6.5% | 9h | 4.6d ago · 62× | 76% ±15 | 26% ±9 | 25% ±9 | 49% ±10 | 93 | 59% ±7 | 76% ±15 | 87% ±21 | 92% ±27 | 2h | 0.44% | 0.46% | 181 → 4 | |
| 30D VAL | 7,636.75 (-0.2%) | 0.7 | 9.5% | 14h | 5.6d ago · 41× | 64% ±22 | 22% ±11 | 41% ±13 | 37% ±13 | 51 | 45% ±9 | 63% ±22 | 74% ±35 | 81% ±45 | 18h | 0.69% | 0.55% | 106 → 3 | |
setups at this candle
no directional VAH / POC / VAL setup fired on this candle.