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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-08-04 04:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,452 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0001 to 0.0033), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.16 to 0.44) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 3,926.27 (+11.0%) | 15 | 0.1% | 48m | 22.5d ago · 44× | 4% ±19 | building | building | building | building | 3 | 3% ±6 | 3% ±15 | 14% ±49 | 56% | 6.9d | — | — | 31 → 1 |
| 7D VAH | 3,887.95 (+9.9%) | 14 | 0.4% | 4h | 4.5d ago · 97× | building | 50% ±25 | 11% ±16 | 39% ±25 | 15 | 6% ±13 | 6% ±34 | 6% | 6% | > 7d | 1.89% | 1.39% | 14 → 1 | |
| 14D VAH | 3,840.97 (+8.6%) | 12 | 1.0% | 7h | 4.4d ago · 70× | 37% ±55 | 40% ±28 | 7% ±14 | 53% ±28 | 12 | 4% ±8 | 33% ±46 | 96% | 96% | 2.0d | 1.98% | 2.53% | 23 → 1 | |
| 7D POC | 3,785.18 (+7.0%) | 9.8 | 2.4% | 18h | 4.3d ago · 104× | building | 54% ±31 | 15% ±22 | 31% ±29 | 10 | 6% ±13 | 6% ±34 | 6% | 6% | > 7d | 2.23% | 1.42% | 14 → 1 | |
| 30D POC · 14D POC | 3,759–3,767.56 (+6.2%) | 8.8 | 2.7% | 21h | 4.3d ago · 79× | 36% ±66 | building | building | building | building | 4 | 9% ±13 | 20% ±45 | 20% | 20% | > 7d | — | — | 18 → 1 |
| 14D VAL | 3,606.05 (+1.9%) | 2.7 | 1.8% | 10h | 24.0d ago · 46× | building | building | building | building | building | 1 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 9 → 1 |
| HVN zone | 3,548.1–3,839 (+0.3%) | 0.4 | 1.2% | 10h | 1.6d ago · 83× | 68% ±53 | building | building | building | building | 5 | 60% ±23 | 70% ±52 | 95% | 95% | 1h | — | — | 18 → 1 |
| 7D VAL | 3,541.45 (+0.1%) | 0.1 | 1.2% | 9h | 8.3d ago · 56× | building | building | building | building | building | 2 | building | building | building | building | — | — | — | 3 → 1 |
| at post · 3,538.21 | |||||||||||||||||||
| LVN zone | 3,184.47–3,329.92 (-5.9%) | 8.3 | 0.2% | 1h | 2.4d ago · 47× | 4% ±10 | building | building | building | building | 8 | 1% ±2 | 4% ±10 | 12% ±29 | 23% ±59 | > 7d | — | — | 91 → 2 |
| 30D VAL | 3,039.02 (-14.1%) | 20 | 1.1% | 6h | 2.4d ago · 31× | 1% ±5 | building | building | building | building | 1 | 1% ±2 | 1% ±5 | 1% ±8 | 1% ±14 | > 7d | — | — | 101 → 2 |
| HVN zone | 2,951.75–3,024.48 (-14.5%) | 20 | 1.0% | 4h | 1.4d ago · 85× | 1% ±6 | 38% ±30 | 38% ±30 | 23% ±26 | 10 | 1% ±2 | 1% ±6 | 1% ±10 | 1% ±15 | > 7d | 2.71% | 1.30% | 82 → 2 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | VAL | short | 3,538.21 | 3,532.64 | 3,785.18 | target | -3.09% |