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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-09 20:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,446 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0002 to 0.0039), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.22 to 0.47) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 4,616.56 (+7.3%) | 12 | 2.0% | 11h | 21.9d ago · 44× | 4% ±8 | building | building | building | building | 8 | 1% ±2 | 4% ±8 | 16% ±25 | 49% ±57 | > 7d | — | — | 140 → 3 |
| 14D VAH | 4,447.71 (+3.4%) | 5.3 | 2.1% | 18h | 3.8d ago · 70× | 20% ±16 | 42% ±24 | 5% ±11 | 53% ±24 | 16 | 3% ±3 | 20% ±16 | 45% ±34 | 63% ±47 | 5.4d | 1.98% | 2.53% | 147 → 4 | |
| 7D VAH | 4,381.93 (+1.8%) | 2.9 | 2.9% | 21h | 3.8d ago · 97× | 48% ±22 | 48% ±21 | 8% ±11 | 44% ±21 | 22 | 10% ±5 | 49% ±21 | 64% ±36 | 82% ±43 | 1.0d | 2.23% | 1.62% | 125 → 3 | |
| 14D POC | 4,303.75 (+0.0%) | 0.0 | 5.3% | 2.3d | 3.6d ago · 79× | 93% ±25 | 31% ±25 | 6% ±13 | 63% ±26 | 13 | 84% ±13 | 94% ±22 | 97% ±24 | 97% | 1h | 2.05% | 1.90% | 29 → 1 | |
| at post · 4,302.98 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D POC · 30D POC | 4,297.88–4,300.96 (-0.0%) | 0.1 | 5.5% | 2.5d | 3.5d ago · 106× | 83% ±26 | 63% ±20 | 5% ±9 | 32% ±19 | 23 | 73% ±12 | 84% ±26 | 87% ±38 | 93% | 1h | 3.29% | 1.06% | 49 → 1 | |
| 7D VAL · 14D VAL | 4,264.9–4,272.15 (-0.7%) | 1.1 | 3.3% | 1.0d | 3.4d ago · 85× | 56% ±29 | 67% ±24 | 17% ±19 | 17% ±19 | 15 | 36% ±11 | 57% ±28 | 67% ±46 | 74% ±61 | 11h | 2.73% | 0.87% | 69 → 2 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,248.51 (-1.3%) | 2.0 | 1.5% | 10h | 1.8d ago · 31× | 35% ±54 | building | building | building | building | 1 | 17% ±18 | 35% ±54 | 35% | 35% | > 7d | — | — | 16 → 1 |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | POC | long | 4,302.98 | 4,381.93 | 4,272.15 | target | +0.58% |
| 30d | POC | long | 4,302.98 | 4,616.56 | 4,248.51 | expired | +0.58% |