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ETH · 1h · posted 2025-09-30 08:00 UTC
replayed from stored candles · live chart → · ◂ previous scan · next scan ▸ · discord image ↗
ETH · these odds carry no usable signal 4,441 tests, 46% held
Every settled test, counted once, scored against the odds this page showed at the time. They explain 0.2% of the variation they could (resolution 0.0005 of 0.249, 95% 0.0002 to 0.0030), and their calibration slope is 0.09 (95% -0.23 to 0.44) where 1 would mean they can be taken at face value. Against random prices at the same ATR distance, real levels held 47.1% vs 48.8%. Read a level as a place a move may pause, not as odds with an edge.
levels · as known at this post
| level | price (distance) | ATR away | volume here | time here | last tested | reach 24h | if tested | hold | chop | break | tests | back 4h | back 1d | back 3d | back 7d | median time | bounce | overshoot | scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D VAH | 4,730.16 (+13.5%) | 17 | 0.4% | 4h | 21.5d ago · 44× | 2% ±5 | 31% ±29 | 15% ±22 | 54% ±31 | 10 | 1% ±2 | 1% ±5 | 14% ±26 | 52% ±57 | 6.4d | 1.68% | 2.10% | 132 → 3 | |
| 14D VAH | 4,445.66 (+6.7%) | 8.5 | 2.6% | 14h | 3.4d ago · 70× | 14% ±12 | 48% ±22 | 4% ±9 | 48% ±22 | 20 | 2% ±2 | 14% ±12 | 36% ±28 | 66% ±41 | 4.9d | 2.23% | 1.75% | 191 → 5 | |
| 30D POC | 4,299.73 (+3.2%) | 4.1 | 5.4% | 2.3d | 3.3d ago · 67× | 14% ±25 | 19% ±21 | 25% ±24 | 56% ±27 | 13 | 4% ±6 | 13% ±23 | 31% ±53 | 60% | 6.1d | 0.99% | 1.96% | 46 → 1 | |
| 30D VAL | 4,247.7 (+1.9%) | 2.5 | 0.3% | 1h | 105.5d ago · 18× | 6% ±27 | building | building | building | building | 0 | 5% ±10 | 10% ±34 | 10% | 10% | > 7d | — | — | 18 → 1 |
| LVN zone | 4,219.32–4,257.16 (+1.2%) | 1.6 | 0.8% | 5h | 2.0d ago · 50× | 55% ±44 | building | building | building | building | 7 | 24% ±15 | 56% ±44 | 75% ±60 | 97% | 20h | — | — | 31 → 1 |
| 14D POC | 4,178.96 (+0.3%) | 0.4 | 3.0% | 1.1d | 3.3d ago · 79× | 88% ±24 | 32% ±23 | 5% ±11 | 63% ±24 | 16 | 72% ±14 | 88% ±24 | 93% ±35 | 95% | 1h | 2.02% | 1.85% | 41 → 1 | |
| HVN zone | 4,172.02–4,181.48 (+0.1%) | 0.1 | 2.9% | 1.1d | 1.3d ago · 83× | 88% ±26 | 62% ±22 | 10% ±14 | 29% ±21 | 18 | 78% ±13 | 88% ±26 | 93% ±37 | 93% | 1h | 2.34% | 1.46% | 38 → 1 | |
| at post · 4,167.33 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7D VAH | 4,144.9 (-0.5%) | 0.7 | 1.5% | 10h | 3.4d ago · 65× | 85% ±31 | 47% ±24 | 5% ±11 | 47% ±24 | 16 | 68% ±16 | 84% ±32 | 84% ±51 | 84% | 2h | 2.62% | 1.77% | 32 → 1 | |
| LVN zone | 4,049.04–4,086.88 (-1.9%) | 2.5 | 0.7% | 2h | 1.4d ago · 47× | 39% ±22 | 60% ±23 | 20% ±19 | 20% ±19 | 17 | 11% ±6 | 38% ±22 | 46% ±40 | 51% ±57 | 4.8d | 3.52% | 1.53% | 110 → 3 | |
| 7D POC | 4,006.82 (-3.9%) | 4.9 | 2.2% | 23h | 3.1d ago · 106× | 24% ±19 | 60% ±18 | 3% ±7 | 37% ±18 | 27 | 3% ±3 | 24% ±19 | 40% ±39 | 57% ±56 | 5.0d | 2.91% | 1.22% | 115 → 3 | |
| 7D VAL | 3,868.74 (-7.2%) | 9.1 | 0.4% | 1h | 3.0d ago · 85× | 7% ±8 | 61% ±21 | 17% ±17 | 22% ±18 | 20 | 1% ±1 | 7% ±8 | 14% ±19 | 34% ±42 | > 7d | 2.57% | 0.74% | 226 → 5 | |
| 14D VAL | 3,822 (-8.3%) | 11 | 0.1% | 8m | 3.0d ago · 59× | 6% ±7 | 62% ±30 | 15% ±22 | 23% ±26 | 10 | 0% ±1 | 6% ±7 | 16% ±20 | 40% ±39 | > 7d | 2.68% | 0.82% | 233 → 6 | |
setups at this candle
| window | level | side | entry | target | stop | outcome | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | POC | short | 4,167.33 | 3,822 | 4,445.66 | expired | -2.94% |